PredictIt operates under a CFTC no action framework limited to political event contracts and cannot list weather. Why weather and climate markets are not offered there, and where they actually trade. Information, not advice. As of December 2025.
Last reviewed 26 December 2025 · Facts as of December 2025 · Illustrative editorial examples
On PredictIt, a weather and climate market is a contract on a clearly defined question that settles against a written rule, the named source and date set before trading. A correct side pays one dollar and the other pays nothing, so the price between 1 and 99 cents reads as the implied probability.
Operates under a CFTC no-action posture that has been contested over time, so standing is conditional.
Always read the specific market's resolution rule, not the headline. Fees and spreads reduce real returns, and availability can change.
No. PredictIt operates under a no action framework from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission that limits it to political event contracts and does not permit weather, climate, commodity, or sports markets. This is general information, not advice, as of December 2025.
The conditions of its framework restrict it to political contracts. Weather sits outside its permitted scope, so the absence is a regulatory boundary, not a temporary gap that demand will close.
On a federally regulated exchange that is permitted to list weather and climate indicators, subject to your state and account. Read our weather and climate guide, then compare the venues that genuinely offer these markets where you live.
Its regulatory status has been contested and revised in recent years, with its operating conditions amended and litigated. That adds uncertainty to the platform generally, but it does not change the answer for weather, which is outside its scope in any case.
Yes. A weather or climate outcome can be genuinely uncertain, and you can lose your whole stake. A regulated venue makes resolution clean against a defined measure, not the outcome predictable.
These contracts trade on a regulated venue and settle against a written rule. Read the primary source and the specific market rule before you act.
Facts as of December 2025. General information, not financial or betting advice.