An independent guide to weather and climate prediction markets: temperature, rainfall, snowfall, and hurricane contracts, how they settle against official data such as the National Weather Service, what they cost, and where they trade. Information, not advice. As of June 2026.
Last reviewed 23 June 2026 · Facts and fees as of June 2026 · Illustrative editorial examples
Most markets here are binary: a clearly defined yes or no question. Each contract resolves to one dollar if yes and zero if no. The price you pay between 1 and 99 cents is the market's live read on the odds.
Settlement follows a written rule defined before trading: the named source, the date, and how edge cases are handled. Read that rule before you trade; it is the contract.
Resolution sources and timing differ by platform and market. Always check the specific market's rules, not the headline.
Drag to see how a contract price maps to an implied chance, and what 100 dollars would return if it resolves yes.
A price is the market's estimate of probability, not a forecast of the result and not advice. Fees and spreads reduce real returns. Illustrative; excludes fees.
Structures differ. Some charge a per-contract fee, others earn on the spread. Compare like with like. As of June 2026; illustrative.
If you cannot answer these for a specific market, you do not yet understand what you would be buying.
What exact source and date decides this market, and who adjudicates a dispute?
Is there enough liquidity for me to exit at a fair price before resolution?
What are the all-in costs, fee, spread, deposit and withdrawal, on a trade this size?
Is this platform legally available to me, and am I within its age and verification rules?
What is the most I am willing to lose here, and have I decided that before buying?
A weather prediction market is a market in binary contracts on a defined weather or climate outcome, such as whether a named city's high temperature reaches a stated level on a given day. Each contract settles at one dollar if the outcome happens and zero if it does not, and the price between one cent and ninety nine cents reads as the implied probability. This is general information, not advice.
It settles against the official data source named in the contract rules. On regulated United States venues, daily temperature markets commonly resolve against the final figure reported by the National Weather Service for the named station, typically published the following day. Always read the named source, station, and time before trading.
On federally overseen United States exchanges, weather and climate event contracts are offered to verified users under Commodity Futures Trading Commission oversight, as of June 2026. Onchain venues without United States registration are a separate, contested question for United States users. Check your local legality page and the platform terms before trading.
Common shapes include daily high and low temperature thresholds and ranges for major cities, monthly rainfall and snowfall totals, and storm contracts on whether a named storm or a storm of a given category makes landfall within a defined window. The exact condition and source are set on each market page.
Forecasts sharpen as the event approaches, so the implied probability on a short dated weather contract can swing as new model runs and observations arrive. That uncertainty cuts both ways and is a core reason these markets carry a real risk of loss.