A neutral, dated explainer on weather and climate event contracts on Kalshi, a Commodity Futures Trading Commission regulated exchange, including daily city temperatures, rainfall, snowfall, and hurricane counts. Information, not advice. As of December 2025.
Last reviewed 29 December 2025 · Facts as of December 2025 · Illustrative editorial examples
On Kalshi, a weather and climate market is a contract on a clearly defined question that settles against a written rule, the named source and date set before trading. A correct side pays one dollar and the other pays nothing, so the price between 1 and 99 cents reads as the implied probability.
CFTC-overseen designated contract market with member funds in segregated accounts. The clearest standing in the set.
Always read the specific market's resolution rule, not the headline. Fees and spreads reduce real returns, and availability can change.
Yes. As of December 2025 Kalshi runs an active weather and climate category, including daily city temperatures, monthly rainfall and snowfall, seasonal hurricane counts, and questions such as whether a year will be the warmest on record. This is general information, not advice.
They resolve against an official, published source, most often a National Weather Service report, typically issued the morning after the day in question. That gives a clear rule for settlement. As of December 2025.
Each is a yes or no claim priced between one cent and ninety nine cents. A correct contract settles at one dollar and an incorrect one at zero, and the price reads as the market implied probability. You can buy or sell before it resolves.
Yes. Kalshi is a designated contract market regulated by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, a federal footing that applies across the United States, though account eligibility and your own location still apply. As of December 2025.
A fee applies and varies with the price of the contract and the size of the order. Factor that cost into any position, since trading in and out adds up.
No. A price is the implied probability the market currently assigns, not a forecast you can count on. Outcomes are uncertain and you can lose your whole stake.
These contracts trade on a regulated venue and settle against a written rule. Read the primary source and the specific market rule before you act.
Facts as of December 2025. General information, not financial or betting advice.