How weather and climate event contracts reach Robinhood, which offers prediction markets through a partnership with a Commodity Futures Trading Commission registered exchange, including temperature and climate questions. Information, not advice. As of December 2025.
Last reviewed 25 December 2025 · Facts as of December 2025 · Illustrative editorial examples
On Robinhood, a weather and climate market is a contract on a clearly defined question that settles against a written rule, the named source and date set before trading. A correct side pays one dollar and the other pays nothing, so the price between 1 and 99 cents reads as the implied probability.
Contracts sourced from CFTC-regulated partner exchanges; Robinhood is the front end.
Always read the specific market's resolution rule, not the headline. Fees and spreads reduce real returns, and availability can change.
Robinhood offers event contracts through its prediction markets section, which is powered by a partnership with a Commodity Futures Trading Commission registered exchange. That has included climate and temperature questions, such as the high temperature in a city. The exact list changes, so check the app for what is live. This is general information, not advice, current as of December 2025.
Robinhood does not run the exchange itself. It provides access to event contracts listed on a Commodity Futures Trading Commission registered exchange through a partnership, so the contracts sit under federal commodities oversight rather than a state gaming license. As of December 2025.
The underlying exchange markets event contracts across the United States under its federal designation, and weather and climate contracts have generally been less contested than sports contracts. Even so, availability and eligibility can vary, so confirm access in the app for your situation. As of December 2025.
A contract price reflects the market's implied probability of an outcome, such as a city reaching a high temperature today. A price near 70 percent suggests roughly a 70 percent chance, not a certainty. Forecasts change, the market can be wrong, and you can lose your stake.
See the weather and climate category guide for how these markets work across platforms, and the legality hub for where each platform is available to you.
These contracts trade on a regulated venue and settle against a written rule. Read the primary source and the specific market rule before you act.
Facts as of December 2025. General information, not financial or betting advice.