A neutral, dated guide to weather and climate questions on Metaculus, a reputation based forecasting platform with no money at stake, how its scoring works, and where weather contracts trade for real money instead. Information, not advice. As of December 2025.
Last reviewed 27 December 2025 · Facts as of December 2025 · Illustrative editorial examples
On Metaculus, a weather and climate market is a contract on a clearly defined question that settles against a written rule, the named source and date set before trading. A correct side pays one dollar and the other pays nothing, so the price between 1 and 99 cents reads as the implied probability.
No money is at stake; the currency is a track record, so there is no financial risk and no exchange oversight.
Always read the specific market's resolution rule, not the headline. Fees and spreads reduce real returns, and availability can change.
Metaculus runs weather and climate questions, often long horizon ones on records and indicators, but they are forecasts scored for accuracy, not contracts you trade for money. It is a reputation platform, not a money exchange. This is general information, not advice, as of December 2025.
No money is staked or paid out for accuracy in the way an exchange settles. Forecasters are scored on accuracy and earn standing, and any tournament or program rules are set by the platform. The reward is reputation, not a trading payout. As of December 2025.
A market price is an implied probability backed by real stakes, while a Metaculus community prediction aggregates forecaster probabilities scored for accuracy. Both express a probability, but only the market price reflects money at risk. Do not read the forecast as a price you can buy.
No. Because no money is at stake, it is not a registered exchange and does not need designation from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. It is a forecasting platform and community, not a real money market. As of December 2025.
Weather event contracts are offered on federally regulated United States exchanges. See the weather and climate category guide and the legality pages for how those markets work and which venues are genuinely available to you.
These contracts trade on a regulated venue and settle against a written rule. Read the primary source and the specific market rule before you act.
Facts as of December 2025. General information, not financial or betting advice.