A neutral, dated guide to weather and climate questions on Manifold Markets, a play money platform where nothing of monetary value is staked. How they resolve and what to do for a real money market. Information, not advice. As of December 2025.
Last reviewed 27 December 2025 · Facts as of December 2025 · Illustrative editorial examples
On Manifold, a weather and climate market is a contract on a clearly defined question that settles against a written rule, the named source and date set before trading. A correct side pays one dollar and the other pays nothing, so the price between 1 and 99 cents reads as the implied probability.
No real money changes hands, so financial risk is low; that also means it is not a regulated exchange.
Always read the specific market's resolution rule, not the headline. Fees and spreads reduce real returns, and availability can change.
Yes, because users create them. Weather and climate questions appear alongside many other topics on Manifold. Manifold is a play money platform, so nothing of monetary value is at stake. This is general information, not advice, as of December 2025.
No. As of December 2025 Manifold runs on a mana only model after sunsetting its sweepstakes feature in March 2025. Mana is not money, so there is no cash deposit or withdrawal.
A user writes a resolution rule naming an official source, location, and time window, and the market resolves against it. Read the rule carefully, since user created questions vary in how precisely they are written.
No. Because no money is staked, the rules that apply to real money exchanges do not apply in the same way. A real money weather market is a different kind of venue with real risk of loss.
No. It is the crowd's implied probability based on current information, not a result that is guaranteed. It can move and can be wrong. Read it as an estimate, never as a verdict.
These contracts trade on a regulated venue and settle against a written rule. Read the primary source and the specific market rule before you act.
Facts as of December 2025. General information, not financial or betting advice.