How weather and climate event contracts work on Polymarket, now a CFTC regulated United States exchange, how daily temperature markets settle on National Weather Service data, and where it is restricted. Information, not advice. As of December 2025.
Last reviewed 8 December 2025 · Facts as of December 2025 · Illustrative editorial examples
On Polymarket, a weather and climate market is a contract on a clearly defined question that settles against a written rule, the named source and date set before trading. A correct side pays one dollar and the other pays nothing, so the price between 1 and 99 cents reads as the implied probability.
Began intermediated US access in December 2025 through a CFTC-licensed exchange and clearinghouse; standing is improving but newer than Kalshi.
Always read the specific market's resolution rule, not the headline. Fees and spreads reduce real returns, and availability can change.
Yes. Polymarket lists a wide weather and climate category, including daily high temperature markets for many cities and longer term climate contracts such as hurricane landfall, tornado counts, and where a year ranks for heat. The exact markets live at any time change. This is general information, not advice, current as of December 2025.
Daily temperature markets commonly settle on the official daily climate report published by the local National Weather Service forecast office, which records the observed high and low for a location and date. Read each market's stated source and rule before you trade.
Polymarket operates a CFTC regulated United States exchange after acquiring a licensed designated contract market and receiving an amended order of designation. It is live to eligible United States users, but it is not available in every state, so verify your own eligibility before trading. As of December 2025.
As of December 2025, reported restrictions include Arizona, Illinois, Massachusetts, Maryland, Michigan, Montana, New Jersey, Nevada, and Ohio, with a Minnesota restriction reported to take effect on 1 August 2026. State rules change, so confirm the current position for where you live.
See the weather and climate category guide for how these markets work across platforms, and the legality hub for where each platform is available to you.
These contracts trade on a regulated venue and settle against a written rule. Read the primary source and the specific market rule before you act.
Facts as of December 2025. General information, not financial or betting advice.