How weather and climate markets work on Futuur, a global prediction market with real money and play money, and why the real money exchange is not available to United States persons. Information, not advice. As of December 2025.
Last reviewed 29 December 2025 · Facts as of December 2025 · Illustrative editorial examples
On Futuur, a weather and climate market is a contract on a clearly defined question that settles against a written rule, the named source and date set before trading. A correct side pays one dollar and the other pays nothing, so the price between 1 and 99 cents reads as the implied probability.
Real-money mode runs under an overseas license, not US regulation; play money carries no financial risk.
Always read the specific market's resolution rule, not the headline. Fees and spreads reduce real returns, and availability can change.
Futuur is a global prediction market with a large library of forecasts across many categories, and weather and climate questions fit its yes or no format. It offers both real money and play money modes. Confirm exactly what is live and whether you are eligible. This is general information, not advice, current as of December 2025.
No. Futuur real money markets are not offered to United States persons, so the real money weather exchange is not available to readers here. The play money mode carries no financial stake. Confirm your own eligibility before assuming you can act. As of December 2025.
A market price reads as the crowd implied probability of the outcome. A price near seventy cents on the dollar suggests roughly a seventy percent chance, not a certainty. Prices move as forecasts firm up, and they can be wrong.
In the United States, weather and climate event contracts are offered by venues regulated by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. Read the weather and climate category guide for the mechanics, then use the legality hub to see which venues are genuinely available to you. As of December 2025.
See the weather and climate category guide for how these markets work across platforms, and the legality hub for where each platform is available to you.
These contracts trade on a regulated venue and settle against a written rule. Read the primary source and the specific market rule before you act.
Facts as of December 2025. General information, not financial or betting advice.