A long running political market trading under amended CFTC no action relief since July 2025, small caps, clearer footing.
Each platform is scored against the same five part rubric, weighted toward regulation and reliable payouts. Scores are illustrative editorial judgments, not investment advice.
Operates under amended CFTC no action relief, Letter 25-20 of July 2025, after years of dispute, so standing is firmer but still conditional.
Political focus with a per contract position cap of 3,500 dollars since July 2025.
A 10 percent fee on profits and a 5 percent withdrawal fee, with a 30 day holding period.
Dated interface but familiar to political traders.
Long settlement track record on political markets.
PredictIt is a long running political prediction market that operates in the United States under conditional no action relief from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, not full registration as an exchange. As of June 2026 it lists political and election event contracts only, charges 10% on profits and 5% on withdrawals, and caps a single position in any one contract at 3,500 dollars after the CFTC amended its relief on 14 July 2025. Its legal footing was contested for years and is now clearer, but it remains staff relief that can change rather than a permanent licence.
PredictIt launched in 2014 as a research project on political forecasting, run for most of its life by Victoria University of Wellington under a no action letter from the CFTC Division of Market Oversight, Letter 14-130. A no action letter is a statement that regulatory staff will not recommend enforcement action so long as the operator keeps to a set of conditions. That is a real and useful permission, but it is weaker than registration. PredictIt is not a CFTC registered designated contract market in the way that some of its peers are. It sits on staff relief, and staff relief is conditional by design.
The conditions are the whole point. The relief keeps PredictIt small and tied to political event contracts, framed around academic study of how markets price political outcomes. Markets resolve to a defined yes or no on questions such as who wins a nomination, which party controls a chamber, or how a named official fares by a stated date. The platform does not offer the broad menu of economic, weather, or sports contracts that a registered exchange can list. If you want a wide market range, PredictIt is not built for it. If you want the longest running political price history in the United States, this is where it lives.
For several years PredictIt's status was genuinely in doubt, and it is worth being plain about that history because it explains why the platform still scores conditionally. On 4 August 2022 the CFTC issued no action letter 22-08, withdrawing the original relief on the ground that the market had not been operated within the 2014 conditions, and set a deadline to wind the market down. Traders and the operator challenged that withdrawal in court in the case known as Clarke v. CFTC.
On 1 May 2023 the United States Court of Appeals for the Fifth Circuit issued an order that enjoined the CFTC from closing the PredictIt market or otherwise deterring trading in its contracts until 60 days after a final judgment, per the Fifth Circuit order in that case. The litigation continued, and in 2025 it turned decisively. Reporting on the case states that the United States District Court for the Western District of Texas ruled for the PredictIt plaintiffs on 22 July 2025, finding the CFTC's actions arbitrary and capricious.
Alongside the court process, the CFTC amended the relief itself. Per CFTC Letter No. 25-20, dated 14 July 2025, the Division amended the original 2014 letter to remove the limit of 5,000 traders in any one contract and to raise the single participant investment cap, tying it to the federal individual campaign contribution limit under the Federal Election Campaign Act. The same letter recognised that operation would transfer from Victoria University of Wellington to the Prediction Market Research Consortium, Inc., a United States not for profit that has applied for 501(c)(3) status. Separately, reputable reporting notes that on 11 December 2025 the CFTC granted no action leeway to several venues including PredictIt over certain data reporting requirements.
The honest summary as of June 2026 is this. PredictIt's footing is firmer than it was during the 2022 to 2023 dispute, because the relief has been amended and broadened rather than withdrawn. It is still conditional staff relief, not a permanent registration, and that distinction is why a careful reader should treat the status as good but not guaranteed.
The 2025 amendment matters to anyone using the platform because it loosened two of PredictIt's most criticised constraints. The investment cap on a single contract rose from 850 dollars to 3,500 dollars per person, which the CFTC framed as a recognition of inflation since 2014 and pegged to the federal individual campaign contribution limit, per CFTC Letter No. 25-20 of 14 July 2025. The historical cap of 5,000 traders per contract was removed, so a popular market is no longer closed to new participants once it fills.
What did not change is just as important. The platform is still restricted to political event contracts and still framed around academic research, and the CFTC stated that the caps are meant to keep the market small scale while allowing enough liquidity to generate useful data. PredictIt is not becoming a general purpose exchange. It is a larger version of the same focused, research oriented political market it has always been.
PredictIt's pricing is simple to state and easy to underestimate. Per the platform's published terms, as of June 2026, it charges a 10% fee on the profit you make on a position and a 5% fee when you withdraw money, and withdrawals are subject to a 30 day holding period after your first deposit. There is no charge to place a trade beyond those two fees, but because they apply at different points they stack against your net return.
A worked example shows why the headline payout is not what you keep. Suppose you buy 100 Yes shares at 60 cents each, for 60 dollars. The market resolves yes, so each share redeems at one dollar and your position is worth 100 dollars. Your gross profit is 40 dollars. PredictIt's 10% profit fee takes 4 dollars, leaving 36 dollars of profit and a balance of 96 dollars. When you withdraw that balance, the 5% withdrawal fee applies to the amount withdrawn. Always read the current fee help pages before you size a position, because a small edge can be eaten by fees on a market you trade often.
| Item | Detail | As of |
|---|---|---|
| Profit fee | 10% of the profit on a position | Jun 2026 |
| Withdrawal fee | 5% of the amount withdrawn | Jun 2026 |
| Withdrawal hold | 30 day holding period after first deposit | Jun 2026 |
| Max per contract | 3,500 dollars per person, raised from 850 dollars | Jul 2025 |
| Traders per contract | No fixed cap, 5,000 limit removed | Jul 2025 |
| Funding methods | Debit card, ACH bank transfer, wire | Jun 2026 |
| Market range | Political and election event contracts only | Jun 2026 |
Methodology: compiled by Prediction Market Index from PredictIt's published terms and support pages and from CFTC Letter No. 25-20 dated 14 July 2025. Figures as of June 2026. Verify the current fee schedule with the platform before depositing.
Every PredictIt market carries written resolution criteria that name how the question will be decided and when. A contract settles to one dollar if its outcome resolves yes and to nothing if it resolves no, and your profit or loss is the gap between what you paid and what you receive. Because the market range is narrow and political, resolution usually hangs on an official result such as a certified election outcome or a formally announced decision. If you want the general mechanics of how any event contract pays out, see our explainer on how event contracts settle.
Liquidity is uneven. Headline national markets can trade actively, while smaller or longer dated questions can sit thin, which widens the gap between the buy and sell price and raises the cost of getting in or out. Read our guide to liquidity and why it matters before you commit to a quiet market.
PredictIt is built for verified users based in the United States who confirm their identity and are 18 or the legal age in their region. It is not generally offered to users in the United Kingdom or the European Union. State rules and eligibility can shift, so the availability check on this page is a starting point, not a final answer. For the wider picture on where these markets stand, see our United States legality hub.
As with any venue, your money sits as a balance with the operator, which is a form of counterparty risk. A clear regulator does not remove that risk, and it is one more reason to keep balances modest. Our guide to counterparty and exchange risk explains what this means in practice.
We reviewed PredictIt's published terms, its fee and support pages, and the CFTC's own no action letters, including Letter No. 25-20, on 27 June 2026, and we cross checked the litigation history against the Fifth Circuit order and reputable reporting. We have not independently placed trades or timed a withdrawal for this profile, so the fee and limit figures here come from the published schedule and the regulator's letter rather than from a payout we processed ourselves. Where we add an original screenshot of the platform, it is our own capture and dated, not vendor or stock art. We update this page when the facts change.
It is easy to read the 2025 outcome as a clean win and stop there. The more useful reading is that PredictIt holds a permission that depends on conditions, and permissions of that kind can be revisited. That is not a prediction that the relief will be withdrawn again, it is a description of what staff relief is. The 2022 episode showed it in concrete terms. When the CFTC issued letter 22-08 it ordered a wind down, which would have meant the market resolving or closing positions on a deadline rather than at the natural settlement of each contract. Anyone holding longer dated positions at that moment faced uncertainty that had nothing to do with the events they had traded.
The practical lesson is to treat regulatory standing as a live variable on a venue like this, not a settled fact. Keep balances modest, prefer shorter dated questions if the conditionality worries you, and check the status before you commit to a position you cannot easily exit. The 11 December 2025 reporting that the CFTC granted certain data reporting leeway to several venues including PredictIt, per reputable coverage of that action, points the same way, which is that the rules around these markets are still being written and adjusted. That is exactly why we keep the regulation score conditional rather than full, even after a favourable 2025.
PredictIt has spent more than a decade as one of the most cited sources of accessible political prices in the United States, used by researchers and journalists as a quick read on how a market prices a race. That history is the reason its political price record is valuable even though its market range is small. It is not trying to be a broad exchange, and judged against a broad exchange it will always look limited on selection, fees, and interface. Judged as a focused political market with a long track record, it occupies a niche that few venues fill.
If you want to see how it sits next to larger venues on the same five part rubric, our head to head pages set it against its peers. The comparison with a registered exchange shows the trade between range and focus, while the legality hub explains why a US person can reach some venues and not others. Read Kalshi versus PredictIt and Polymarket versus PredictIt for the side by side, and our guide to how regulated exchanges differ from offshore venues for the wider frame.
Political markets carry a particular hazard, which is that people trade their hopes. Around an election it is easy to size a position by how strongly you feel about a result rather than by what the price implies and what you can afford to lose. The fees make this worse, because a 10% cut of profits and a 5% withdrawal fee mean a trader who churns small edges keeps less than the raw numbers suggest. Decide your limit before the result is near, not in the final hours, and never stake money you need or money you have borrowed.
Keep your own records as you go, because profits on these markets can carry tax consequences and the platform total is not a substitute for your own log. Our guides to record keeping for tax time and responsible play and staying in control cover both points in more depth, and the risk note further down this page lists where to get help if it stops feeling like a free choice.
The scorecard near the top of this page splits 100 points five ways, weighted toward regulation and reliable payouts, and the illustrative result reflects the facts on this page rather than any opinion we were paid to hold. Regulation scores in the middle, not the top, because the relief is real but conditional, and a market that has been ordered to wind down once cannot earn full marks on standing. Market selection scores modestly, because the political only range is narrow against broader venues even after the 2025 caps were raised.
Fees score below average, because the 10% profit fee and 5% withdrawal fee are a real drag on a trader who turns positions over often. Usability reflects an interface that is dated but familiar to political traders, which is neither a strength nor a serious flaw. Payouts and support score well, because the platform has a long record of settling political markets and crediting winners over more than a decade. None of this is a recommendation to use or avoid PredictIt. It is a structured way to compare it with the other venues we cover on the same terms, and you can read the full weighting on our about and method page.
As of June 2026 PredictIt operates under amended no action relief from the CFTC, set out in CFTC Letter No. 25-20 dated 14 July 2025. It is available to verified US based users and lists political event contracts only. This is conditional staff relief rather than full registration, so its standing can change.
Per PredictIt's published terms, as of June 2026, the platform charges a 10% fee on the profit you make on a position and a 5% fee when you withdraw money. Withdrawals also carry a 30 day holding period after your first deposit. There is no separate listing fee for traders.
Since 14 July 2025 the maximum investment in any one contract is 3,500 dollars per person, raised from the previous 850 dollar cap and tied to the federal individual campaign contribution limit. The same amendment removed the old cap of 5,000 traders per contract.
Operation moved in July 2025 from Victoria University of Wellington to the Prediction Market Research Consortium, Inc., a United States not for profit that has applied for 501(c)(3) status. The market remains framed around academic research into political event contracts.
PredictIt is US focused and is not generally offered to users in the United Kingdom or the European Union. Availability still depends on your age, your identity verification, and the rules where you live, which can change, so confirm before you sign up.
Reviewed by Fredrik Filipsson, Editor, on 28 June 2026. Regulatory facts checked against CFTC Letter No. 25-20 and the Fifth Circuit order in Clarke v. CFTC.
Funding and fee details as of June 2026 and illustrative. Verify current terms with the platform before depositing.
The original political market, but the limits and fees show their age.
I keep an eye on its CFTC posture, which has been contested.
Still a useful read on political sentiment despite the caps.
Reviews are illustrative editorial examples, not verified customer testimony.
PredictIt is available to verified US based users. Eligibility still depends on your age and state rules, which can change.
We don't earn from platforms and don't provide sign up or affiliate links. Where a platform is available to you, open an account directly through its own website, and only after you've read the rules and your eligibility.
Availability as of June 2026 · illustrative
A clear regulator does not make a platform safe to over trade. Prediction markets can lose you money; trade only what you can afford to lose, never to chase losses, and never on borrowed money. If it stops feeling like a choice, step back. In the US call or text 1-800-GAMBLER or visit ncpgambling.org.
We assess every platform the same way: we research its regulatory basis, fee schedule, funding methods, market range, and availability from primary sources, then score it. We do not take payment for a score or a place, and we update the page when the facts change. Read the full method on our editorial standards page.