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Legality

Are prediction markets legal in Montana, and who decides?

A plain, dated guide to prediction market legality in Montana: the state cease and desist notices, the federal court fight over preemption, why sports contracts are the most contested, and how to check your eligibility. Information, not legal advice.

By Fredrik FilipssonFounder and editor · Two decades in advisory, hospitality and mediaEditorial review by Morten Andersen · Last reviewed 25 May 2026

Last reviewed 25 May 2026 · Status as of May 2026 · Information, not legal advice

Two layers of rules

Federal authority, state friction.

01
Federal oversight
Some event contracts trade on exchanges overseen by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. A federal appeals posture has generally favored federal authority over these designated markets.
02
State challenges
Several states have challenged operators, especially over sports-event contracts, through cease and desist letters and litigation. This is where most of the live friction sits.
03
Onchain and offshore
Crypto-native and offshore venues operate outside the US framework. Their standing for US persons is unsettled, and we do not treat reachability as legality.
Generally available

US-regulated venues

Kalshi · rated 91/100
Available
Polymarket · rated 86/100
Available
ForecastEx · rated 80/100
Available
Crypto.com · rated 80/100
Available
Robinhood · rated 79/100
Available
Railbird · rated 74/100
Available
Novig · rated 74/100
Available
PredictIt · rated 59/100
Available
Not offered for real money

Offshore and onchain

Futuur · rated 68/100
Not available
Limitless · rated 62/100
Not available
Myriad · rated 60/100
Not available
Drift BET · rated 57/100
Not available
Zeitgeist · rated 54/100
Not available

Availability is indicative and can change, and individual states may restrict specific products such as sports-event contracts. Confirm the current position with the platform and a qualified professional before acting.

FAQ

Montana, and who decides, in short.

Are prediction markets legal in Montana?

As of May 2026 the position is contested and actively litigated. Montana has asserted that event contracts are illegal gambling under state law and issued cease and desist notices to at least one major operator, which then sued the state in federal court to block enforcement on federal preemption grounds. No final ruling had settled the question. Sports contracts are the most disputed category. This is general information, not legal advice.

Has Montana banned Kalshi or other prediction markets?

Montana, through its attorney general and Gambling Control Division, issued cease and desist notices stating that the activity is illegal gambling under Montana law. Rather than comply, the operator sued the state in federal court in 2026 seeking to block enforcement. The matter was unresolved as of May 2026, so treat the position as contested and confirm the current status before relying on it.

Why is Montana treating event contracts as gambling?

Montana takes the view that paying for a contract on a future event, especially a sports outcome, is functionally a wager that risks money on chance and so falls under state gambling law. The operators argue their contracts are federally regulated derivatives overseen by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission and that federal law preempts state gambling enforcement. That clash is what the courts are deciding. As of May 2026.

Can I use a prediction market in Montana right now?

Access has rested on the federal preemption argument, which Montana is actively contesting in court, so it could change with little notice. Confirm your own eligibility and the platform current status before acting, and treat sports contracts as the most contested. This is general information, not legal advice, current as of May 2026.

Who regulates these markets, the state or the federal government?

That is the core dispute. Federally registered event contracts are overseen by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, while Montana asserts its own gambling authority. A federal appeals court ruling in April 2026 leaned toward exclusive federal jurisdiction over sports event contracts, but the question is not finally settled and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission opened a rulemaking in June 2026. Unresolved as of May 2026.

Keep reading
Legality hub
US legality, state by state
All ratings
Every platform, scored
Market guides
The categories, explained

Sources and what to verify in Montana, and who decides

The status above reflects the federal framework and the state position as we read them. These change, so verify the current rules before you act.

Status as of May 2026. General information, not legal advice.