A neutral, dated look at prediction market legality in Germany. The joint state gambling regulator, the GGL, has warned that markets on elections and other public events cannot be licensed, while a financial instrument route through BaFin remains untested. Information, not legal advice. As of June 2026.
Last reviewed 9 June 2026 · Status as of June 2026 · Information, not legal advice
As of June 2026, no prediction market that takes real money on events such as elections or sport holds a licence in Germany. The joint gambling regulator of the federal states, the GGL, said in September 2025 that these social betting markets cannot be licensed under the State Treaty on Gambling 2021, and German users have been blocked from Polymarket. Free to play forecasting sites that take no real money, such as Metaculus and Manifold Markets, sit outside the gambling rules and remain reachable.
Each point above is current as of June 2026. The relevant regulators are the GGL for gambling and BaFin for financial instruments. Confirm the live position with both before relying on it.
A contract price is an implied probability, not a prediction. In an exchange model there is no house taking the other side, only other participants, and the price moves as they trade.
Whether a market is legal where you live says nothing about whether it is a wise place to put money. Read our explainer on how the prices work before you treat any number as a forecast.
Reputation based forecasting with no real money wagering, so it sits outside gambling rules.
Play money markets that use site points rather than cash, which keeps it outside the betting regime.
Free to play prediction markets with no cash stake, used for forecasting rather than wagering.
German users have been blocked and the GGL treats unlicensed event betting as illegal. We do not link to it for German readers.
A United States exchange that restricts access to verified United States residents, so it is not open to a reader in Germany.
The real money mode holds no German gambling licence, so it is not lawfully offered to German residents.
Platform availability is current as of June 2026 and can change quickly through regulator action. We link to a platform only where it is genuinely reachable to a reader in Germany, and we mark contested positions as contested.
As of June 2026, real money prediction markets on public events are not licensable in Germany. The GGL said in September 2025 that such social betting cannot be licensed under the State Treaty on Gambling 2021, and Polymarket has been blocked for German users. No money forecasting sites are a separate matter. This is general information, not legal advice.
Gambling is regulated by the Gemeinsame Gluecksspielbehoerde der Laender, the GGL, under the State Treaty on Gambling 2021. If a product were structured as a financial instrument it could instead fall under BaFin, the financial regulator, but BaFin has not yet taken an explicit position.
No. German users have been blocked from Polymarket, and the GGL treats unlicensed betting on public events as illegal. Reaching the site through a workaround does not make using it lawful, and recourse if funds are lost is limited.
In principle a contract framed as a financial future or derivative could fall to BaFin rather than the gambling regime, which is permissible with the right authorisations. As of June 2026 BaFin has not ruled on prediction market shares, so we treat this route as untested.
Sites such as Metaculus and Manifold Markets that take no cash stake are used for forecasting rather than wagering, so they sit outside the gambling rules and remain reachable. Always confirm a site is offered in your region before relying on it.
Legal does not mean low risk, and a blocked or contested market carries the added danger that you may have little recourse if something goes wrong. Stake only what you can afford to lose, never to chase a loss, and never on borrowed money. If gambling stops feeling like a free choice, the Federal Centre for Health Education runs a free, confidential helpline on 0800 1 37 27 00 and at check-dein-spiel.de.
The status above reflects the national framework as we read it. These rules change, so verify the current position before you act.
Status as of June 2026. General information, not legal advice.