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Prediction Market Index/Legality/Illinois, and who decides
Legality

Are prediction markets legal in Illinois, and who decides?

A plain, dated guide to prediction market legality in Illinois: the state cease and desist letters, the federal court challenge, the new exchange wager tax, what is contested, and how to check your eligibility. Information, not legal advice.

By Morten AndersenFounder and editor · Two decades in advisory, hospitality and mediaEditorial review by Fredrik Filipsson · Last reviewed 13 May 2026

Last reviewed 13 May 2026 · Status as of May 2026 · Information, not legal advice

Two layers of rules

Federal authority, state friction.

01
Federal oversight
Some event contracts trade on exchanges overseen by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. A federal appeals posture has generally favored federal authority over these designated markets.
02
State challenges
Several states have challenged operators, especially over sports-event contracts, through cease and desist letters and litigation. This is where most of the live friction sits.
03
Onchain and offshore
Crypto-native and offshore venues operate outside the US framework. Their standing for US persons is unsettled, and we do not treat reachability as legality.
Generally available

US-regulated venues

Kalshi · rated 91/100
Available
Polymarket · rated 86/100
Available
ForecastEx · rated 80/100
Available
Crypto.com · rated 80/100
Available
Robinhood · rated 79/100
Available
Railbird · rated 74/100
Available
Novig · rated 74/100
Available
PredictIt · rated 59/100
Available
Not offered for real money

Offshore and onchain

Futuur · rated 68/100
Not available
Limitless · rated 62/100
Not available
Myriad · rated 60/100
Not available
Drift BET · rated 57/100
Not available
Zeitgeist · rated 54/100
Not available

Availability is indicative and can change, and individual states may restrict specific products such as sports-event contracts. Confirm the current position with the platform and a qualified professional before acting.

FAQ

Illinois, and who decides, in short.

Are prediction markets legal in Illinois?

As of May 2026 this is actively contested. The Illinois Gaming Board sent cease and desist letters to several prediction market and event contract operators in 2025 and early 2026, asserting they were offering unlicensed sports wagering. The United States and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission then challenged Illinois in federal court, arguing federal law controls. The dispute is unresolved. This is general information, not legal advice.

Did Illinois send cease and desist letters?

Yes. The Illinois Gaming Board issued cease and desist letters to operators including a federally registered exchange, a brokerage offering event contracts, and a crypto platform in 2025, and to a further operator in early 2026, stating it had not licensed them for sports wagering. As of May 2026.

Is there a new tax on prediction markets in Illinois?

Illinois enacted what was reported as the nation first transaction tax on sports event contracts, an exchange wager tax, set to take effect on 1 July 2026. A tax does not by itself settle the separate question of whether the markets are lawful under state gambling law, which remains contested. This is general information, not tax or legal advice, current as of May 2026.

Can I use a prediction market in Illinois right now?

Availability is genuinely uncertain. Federally registered operators have continued to serve users while the federal challenge to Illinois enforcement proceeds, but the underlying legality is unresolved and could change with a ruling. Confirm your own eligibility and the platform current status before acting. This is general information, not legal advice, current as of May 2026.

Who decides, Illinois or the federal government?

That is the dispute. The Commodity Futures Trading Commission and the United States argue federal law preempts state gambling enforcement against registered event contract venues, while Illinois asserts its Sports Wagering Act and Criminal Code. Federal courts are deciding. As of May 2026 the question is unresolved.

Keep reading
Legality hub
US legality, state by state
All ratings
Every platform, scored
Market guides
The categories, explained

Sources and where to check in Illinois, and who decides

The status above reflects the federal framework and the state position as we read them. These change, so verify the current rules before you act.

Status as of May 2026. General information, not legal advice.