A neutral, dated look at prediction market legality in Portugal. The gambling regulator, the SRIJ, ordered Polymarket to stop serving Portuguese users in January 2026, and betting on political events is not permitted under the 2015 online gambling law. Information, not legal advice. As of May 2026.
Last reviewed 19 May 2026 · Status as of May 2026 · Information, not legal advice
As of May 2026, Portugal permits only licensed sports betting, casino games and horse racing under its 2015 online gambling law, and betting on political events is not allowed. In January 2026 the regulator, the Servico de Regulacao e Inspecao de Jogos, the SRIJ, ordered Polymarket to stop serving Portuguese users after heavy trading on the presidential election, and providers including Vodafone Portugal blocked access. No real money prediction market holds a Portuguese licence.
Each point above is current as of May 2026. The relevant regulator is the SRIJ. Confirm the live position with it before relying on it.
A contract price is an implied probability, not a prediction. In an exchange model there is no house taking the other side, only other participants, and the price moves as they trade.
Whether a market is legal where you live says nothing about whether it is a wise place to put money. Read our explainer on how the prices work before you treat any number as a forecast.
Reputation based forecasting with no real money wagering, so it sits outside gambling rules.
Play money markets that use site points rather than cash, which keeps it outside the betting regime.
Free to play prediction markets with no cash stake, used for forecasting rather than wagering.
The SRIJ ordered it to cease in January 2026 and providers blocked access. Political betting is banned under the 2015 law, so we do not link to it for Portuguese readers.
A United States exchange that restricts access to verified United States residents, so it is not open to a reader in Portugal.
The real money mode holds no Portuguese gambling licence, so it is not lawfully offered to Portuguese residents.
Platform availability is current as of May 2026 and can change quickly through regulator action. We link to a platform only where it is genuinely reachable to a reader in Portugal, and we mark contested positions as contested.
No real money prediction market holds a Portuguese licence as of May 2026, and the SRIJ ordered Polymarket to cease in January 2026. The 2015 law permits only sports betting, casino games and horse racing, and political betting is banned. This is general information, not legal advice.
Online gambling is regulated by the Servico de Regulacao e Inspecao de Jogos, the SRIJ. It licenses operators and ordered Polymarket to stop serving Portuguese users.
The SRIJ said Polymarket had no licence and was operating illegally, after heavy trading on the Portuguese presidential election. Betting on political events is not permitted under the 2015 law, and providers blocked access in January 2026.
No. Betting on political events, whether about Portugal or another country, is not allowed under the 2015 online gambling framework. The Polymarket order followed exactly this kind of election trading.
Sites such as Metaculus and Manifold Markets that take no cash stake are forecasting tools rather than betting, so they sit outside the gambling rules. Confirm a site is offered in your region before relying on it.
Legal does not mean low risk, and a blocked or contested market carries the added danger that you may have little recourse if something goes wrong. Stake only what you can afford to lose, never to chase a loss, and never on borrowed money. In Portugal, SICAD runs the Linha Vida support line on 1414 for people worried about gambling.
The status above reflects the national framework as we read it. These rules change, so verify the current position before you act.
Status as of May 2026. General information, not legal advice.