A neutral, dated look at prediction market legality in Brazil. A 2026 resolution from the National Monetary Council banned derivatives tied to sport, politics and entertainment, and providers were ordered to block dozens of platforms. Regulated fixed odds betting is a separate, licensed market. Information, not legal advice. As of March 2026.
Last reviewed 18 March 2026 · Status as of March 2026 · Information, not legal advice
As of March 2026, real money prediction markets on sport, politics and entertainment are prohibited in Brazil. Resolution CMN number 5.298 of 24 April 2026 expressly bans derivative contracts whose underlying is a sport, an online game, or a political, electoral, social, cultural or entertainment event that is not an economic or financial benchmark, and in April 2026 the government ordered internet providers to block at least 27 prediction market platforms. Licensed fixed odds betting is a separate market and runs under authorisations from the Secretaria de Premios e Apostas.
Each point above is current as of March 2026. The relevant bodies are the Secretaria de Premios e Apostas for betting and the National Monetary Council and Banco Central for derivatives. Confirm the live position before relying on it.
A contract price is an implied probability, not a prediction. In an exchange model there is no house taking the other side, only other participants, and the price moves as they trade.
Whether a market is legal where you live says nothing about whether it is a wise place to put money. Read our explainer on how the prices work before you treat any number as a forecast.
Reputation based forecasting with no real money wagering, so it sits outside gambling rules.
Play money markets that use site points rather than cash, which keeps it outside the betting regime.
Free to play prediction markets with no cash stake, used for forecasting rather than wagering.
Among the prediction market platforms ordered blocked by internet providers in April 2026. Event derivatives are prohibited under Resolution CMN 5.298, so we do not link to it for Brazilian readers.
A United States exchange that restricts access to verified United States residents, so it is not open to a reader in Brazil.
Real money event markets fall under the 2026 derivatives ban and hold no Brazilian authorisation.
Platform availability is current as of March 2026 and can change quickly through regulator action. We link to a platform only where it is genuinely reachable to a reader in Brazil, and we mark contested positions as contested.
No. As of March 2026, Resolution CMN number 5.298 of 24 April 2026 prohibits derivative contracts on sport, politics, and entertainment events, and the government ordered providers to block at least 27 prediction market platforms in April 2026. Licensed fixed odds betting is a separate market. This is general information, not legal advice.
Fixed odds betting is licensed by the Secretaria de Premios e Apostas inside the Ministry of Finance under Law 14.790 of 2023. Derivatives are governed by the National Monetary Council and Banco Central, which issued the resolution banning event derivatives.
No. Polymarket was among the platforms ordered blocked by internet providers in April 2026, and the underlying contracts fall within the 2026 derivatives ban. Reaching the site through a workaround does not make using it lawful.
Licensed operators offer fixed odds betting under federal authorisations and are legal. Prediction market event derivatives were judged to be unauthorised betting in another form and are banned. The two sit under different rules.
Sites such as Metaculus and Manifold Markets that take no cash stake are forecasting tools rather than betting or derivatives, so they sit outside the betting and derivatives rules. Confirm a site is offered in your region before relying on it.
Legal does not mean low risk, and a blocked or contested market carries the added danger that you may have little recourse if something goes wrong. Stake only what you can afford to lose, never to chase a loss, and never on borrowed money. In Brazil, support for problem gambling is available through the public health system (SUS) and services such as CVV on 188 for emotional support.
The status above reflects the national framework as we read it. These rules change, so verify the current position before you act.
Status as of March 2026. General information, not legal advice.