Mexico has no licensed category for prediction markets under its 1947 gaming law, which leaves their status unclear rather than plainly allowed or banned.
Last reviewed 10 March 2026 · Status as of March 2026 · Information, not legal advice
As of March 2026, Mexico has no licensed framework for prediction markets or event contracts. Gambling is governed by the Federal Gaming and Raffles Law of 1947 and supervised by the Secretaría de Gobernación through the Dirección General de Juegos y Sorteos. That law predates these products and does not clearly classify them, so their status is best described as unregulated and unclear rather than expressly legal or banned. A reform of the 1947 law has been under discussion since 2025.
Mexico regulates gambling through the Federal Gaming and Raffles Law, known in Spanish as the Ley Federal de Juegos y Sorteos, which dates from 1947. The law sets out the categories of gambling that may be authorized and requires operators to obtain a permit from the Secretaría de Gobernación through its Dirección General de Juegos y Sorteos. Because the framework is so old, it does not mention prediction markets or event contracts at all.
That silence is the heart of the matter. Mexico has neither created a licensed prediction market category nor issued a public statement banning these products outright. The result is a grey area. Some operators may treat parts of the country as an unregulated market, but a grey area is not the same as clear permission, and it carries uncertainty around enforcement, consumer protection, and tax.
Reform has been on the agenda. Since 2025 the authorities have convened working groups with industry to modernize the 1947 law, and the 2026 World Cup has added political momentum around betting rules more broadly. Until any reform is enacted, the honest answer for a Mexican resident is that prediction markets sit outside the licensed system, their treatment is unclear, and anyone considering them should verify the current position with a qualified Mexican adviser and the regulator.
No prediction market holds a Mexican licence for these products, because no such licence exists. The platforms below are listed for context, not as licensed options for a Mexican resident.
Kalshi is a United States designated contract market overseen by the CFTC and is built around United States access. It is not licensed for gambling or financial services in Mexico and offers no licensed route to residents there. See the Kalshi profile.
Polymarket is a crypto settled prediction market that operates without a gambling licence in Mexico. Reachability through a browser or app is not the same as legal availability. See the Polymarket profile.
The Crypto.com event contract product is a United States CFTC listed offering and is not licensed for residents of Mexico. Read the Crypto.com Sports and Events profile.
Positions are as of March 2026 and can change, especially if the 1947 law is reformed. We do not present an unregulated grey area as permission, and we link to a platform only where it is genuinely available to a reader.
Gambling in Mexico is supervised by the Secretaría de Gobernación through the Dirección General de Juegos y Sorteos under the 1947 Federal Gaming and Raffles Law. That law does not address prediction markets, so their status is unclear. Confirm the current position with SEGOB and a qualified Mexican adviser before acting.
Status as of March 2026. We never invent a citation, and where a position is contested we mark it as contested.
An unclear legal status is not a green light. Prediction markets can lose you money, and an unregulated setting means weaker consumer protection if something goes wrong. Stake only what you can afford to lose, never to chase a loss, and never on borrowed money. If gambling stops feeling like a free choice, step back and seek support from a problem gambling service in your country.
Their status is unclear. As of March 2026 Mexico has no licensed category for prediction markets under its 1947 gaming law, so they are neither expressly licensed nor plainly banned. This is general information, not legal advice.
The Secretaría de Gobernación, known as SEGOB, regulates gambling through the Dirección General de Juegos y Sorteos under the Federal Gaming and Raffles Law of 1947.
Neither holds a Mexican prediction market licence, because no such licence exists. Any access would sit outside the licensed system, with the uncertainty that brings.
Possibly. Working groups have met since 2025 to modernize the 1947 law, and the 2026 World Cup has raised the profile of betting regulation. Any reform could change how these products are treated.
Because no prediction market is clearly legal and licensed for a Mexican resident. We only show an open account or compare path where a platform is genuinely available to you.