General information, not financial, investment, legal, tax or betting advice · Prediction markets carry risk of loss · 18+ or the legal age in your region
Prediction MarketIndex
Prediction Market Index/Legality/United Kingdom
Legality by placeUnited Kingdom

Are prediction markets legal in the United Kingdom, and where is the line?

A plain, dated guide to prediction market legality in the United Kingdom. The Gambling Commission view that these products count as gambling, the separate Financial Conduct Authority line on spread betting and binary options, which venues block British users, and how to check your own position. Information, not legal advice.

By Fredrik FilipssonFounder and editor · Two decades in advisory, hospitality and mediaEditorial review by Morten Andersen · Last reviewed 12 June 2026

Last reviewed 12 June 2026 · Status as of June 2026 · Information, not legal advice

Headline status
Not UK licensed
No prediction market in our index holds a UK Gambling Commission licence, and the largest real money venues block British users.
As of June 2026
Information, not advice. This page is general information, not financial, legal, tax, or betting advice. Prediction markets carry a real risk of loss. You must be 18 or over, or the legal age in your region.
Quick answer

As of June 2026, no prediction market platform in our index holds a UK Gambling Commission licence, and the largest real money venues block British users. Polymarket geoblocks UK traffic and Kalshi left Great Britain out of its international launch. In a February 2026 statement the Commission said a prediction market offered to British consumers would be treated as gambling that needs a licence, so treat real money access as not available here. Play money and no stake forecasting tools remain reachable, and licensed UK bookmakers and exchanges already offer political and event betting under gambling licences.

Two frameworks

Gambling law, and a financial line.

01
Gambling law, the Gambling Commission
A platform that lets you stake money on a future outcome is, in the Commission's February 2026 view, gambling that needs a Great Britain licence. None of the global prediction market venues in our index hold one, and the Commission has warned operators not to target British consumers.
02
Financial regulation, the FCA
Spread betting on events is regulated separately by the Financial Conduct Authority as a financial product. The FCA also bans the sale of binary options to retail consumers, which is part of why Kalshi style yes or no contracts are not offered to UK users.
03
Licensed alternatives already exist
Political and event betting has been legal for years through UK licensed bookmakers and betting exchanges such as Betfair and Smarkets, which hold Gambling Commission licences. These sit outside our 16 platform index but are the lawful route for a British reader.
04
What can change
The Commission has signalled it may regulate prediction markets within the existing betting intermediary structure rather than as a new category. Watch for any licensing route that would let a named platform operate here lawfully.
Reachable without real money

Forecasting tools

Metaculus · No stake forecasting
Reachable
Manifold Markets · Play money only
Reachable
Not licensed or blocked

Real money venues

Polymarket · Geoblocks UK traffic
Blocked
Kalshi · Excluded Great Britain at launch
Not offered
Crypto.com · No UK event contract service
Not offered
Other US venues · No UK Gambling Commission licence
Not licensed

Availability is indicative and as of June 2026. We link to a platform only where it is genuinely available to a reader in that place. Licensed UK bookmakers and exchanges, which are not part of our 16 platform index, remain the lawful route for political and event betting in Great Britain.

Regulator and sources
Who to check.

For betting offered to British consumers the relevant regulator is the Gambling Commission, which licenses gambling operators in Great Britain. Its February 2026 position is that a prediction market offered here would fall within gambling and would need a licence.

The Financial Conduct Authority regulates spread betting as a financial product and bans the sale of binary options to retail consumers. Confirm the live position with the Commission at gamblingcommission.gov.uk and the FCA at fca.org.uk. We never invent a citation, and where a position is contested we say so.

A note on risk,

Legal does not mean low risk, and a price is an implied probability, not a prediction. Prediction markets can lose you money. Stake only what you can afford to lose, never to chase a loss, and never on borrowed money. If it stops feeling like a free choice, step back and seek support from a national problem gambling helpline or your doctor.

FAQ

United Kingdom, in short.

Are prediction markets legal in the United Kingdom?

As of June 2026, no prediction market platform in our index holds a UK Gambling Commission licence, and the major real money venues block British users. The Commission stated in February 2026 that such a product offered to British consumers would be treated as gambling that needs a licence. This is general information, not legal advice.

Why does Polymarket block UK users?

Polymarket geoblocks United Kingdom traffic because it does not hold a UK Gambling Commission licence and the legal position treats unlicensed prediction markets as gambling. Reaching the site through a workaround does not make participation lawful or safe, and it can put your funds and recourse at risk.

Who regulates prediction markets in the UK?

Two bodies are relevant. The Gambling Commission licenses gambling offered to British consumers, and in February 2026 it said prediction markets would fall within gambling. The Financial Conduct Authority regulates spread betting as a financial product and bans binary options sales to retail consumers.

Can I bet on elections legally in the UK?

Yes, through UK licensed bookmakers and betting exchanges such as Betfair and Smarkets, which have offered political markets for years under Gambling Commission licences. These sit outside our 16 platform index, which focuses on prediction market and event contract venues rather than traditional bookmakers.

Is using a VPN to reach a blocked venue legal?

We do not advise it. Bypassing a geoblock can breach a platform's own terms, may break local rules, and leaves you without the protections a licensed operator must provide. The honest position is that real money prediction venues are not available to a UK reader as of June 2026.

Keep reading
Legality hub
US legality, state by state
All ratings
Every platform, scored
Learn
How prediction markets actually work

How to verify this for United Kingdom

The status above reflects the national framework and the platform positions as we read them in June 2026. These change, so confirm the current rules before you act.

Status as of June 2026. General information, not legal advice.