A neutral, dated guide to world events and geopolitics questions on Metaculus, a reputation based forecasting platform with no money at stake. How its forecasts work, why nothing is wagered, and what that means. Information, not advice. As of December 2025.
Last reviewed 19 December 2025 · Facts as of December 2025 · Illustrative editorial examples
On Metaculus, a world events and geopolitics market is a contract on a clearly defined question that settles against a written rule, the named source and date set before trading. A correct side pays one dollar and the other pays nothing, so the price between 1 and 99 cents reads as the implied probability.
No money is at stake; the currency is a track record, so there is no financial risk and no exchange oversight.
Always read the specific market's resolution rule, not the headline. Fees and spreads reduce real returns, and availability can change.
Yes, and geopolitics is one of the categories it is known for. Forecasters submit probabilities on world events, the community aggregates them, and accuracy is scored over time. Nothing is wagered. We describe the category in general and do not endorse any specific live question. As of December 2025.
Not in the core forecasting product, where no money is wagered and nothing settles in dollars. Some tournaments and projects can carry prizes, which is separate from buying a contract, so check the terms of any specific tournament rather than assuming it works like a market.
Not in the trading sense. It is a reputation based forecasting platform where the stake is accuracy rather than money. A real money prediction market lets you buy and sell contracts and can lose you cash, which is a different product entirely.
Because nothing is wagered, there is no contract and no payout, so it sits outside the rules that bar a registered exchange from listing contracts involving war, terrorism, or assassination. A forecasting question is not a tradable contract.
No. A community prediction is the crowd's current probability estimate, not a forecast that will come true. It can be confident and still be wrong, especially on geopolitics. Read it as a probability, never as a verdict.
These contracts trade on a regulated venue and settle against a written rule. Read the primary source and the specific market rule before you act.
Facts as of December 2025. General information, not financial or betting advice.