How world events and geopolitics questions work on Manifold, a play money forecasting platform that runs on its Mana currency and ended its real money sweepstakes in 2025. Information, not advice. As of December 2025.
Last reviewed 20 December 2025 · Facts as of December 2025 · Illustrative editorial examples
On Manifold, a world events and geopolitics market is a contract on a clearly defined question that settles against a written rule, the named source and date set before trading. A correct side pays one dollar and the other pays nothing, so the price between 1 and 99 cents reads as the implied probability.
No real money changes hands, so financial risk is low; that also means it is not a regulated exchange.
Always read the specific market's resolution rule, not the headline. Fees and spreads reduce real returns, and availability can change.
Yes, but they are play money. Manifold is a forecasting platform where users create and trade questions using a play money currency called Mana, and world events and geopolitics are among its busiest topics. No real money is staked or won. This is general information, not advice, current as of December 2025.
No. Manifold ran a real money sweepstakes feature called Sweepcash from September 2024, then shut it down on 28 March 2025 and returned to a Mana only model. Since then there is no way to convert Mana to cash, so these markets are forecasting with play money, not a way to win money. As of December 2025.
A market price reads as the crowd's implied probability of an outcome, the same idea as on a money exchange. A market near sixty percent suggests the crowd assigns roughly a sixty percent chance, not a certainty. Because stakes are play money, incentives differ and prices can still be wrong.
No. Because it uses play money in its current model, Manifold is not a money exchange and is not registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission as a designated contract market. Treat it as a forecasting and community tool rather than a place to trade for money. As of December 2025.
See the world events and geopolitics category guide for how these markets work across platforms, and the legality hub for where real money platforms are available to you.
These contracts trade on a regulated venue and settle against a written rule. Read the primary source and the specific market rule before you act.
Facts as of December 2025. General information, not financial or betting advice.