A resolution source is the official data or authority that a market's rules name in advance as the final word on how the event turns out.
Last reviewed 2 December 2025 · Educational, not advice
Every event contract needs a clear, agreed way to decide whether the answer is yes or no once the event is over. The resolution source is that agreed way. It is the specific reference the market rules point to ahead of time, such as an official government release, a recognised data provider, a sporting body's published result, or a named authority, whose statement settles the question. When the source reports the outcome, the contract pays out accordingly and the market closes.
Naming the source in advance matters because it removes argument after the fact. A well written market does not say the answer is whatever seems true. It says the answer is whatever a particular named source reports by a particular time. That way every participant knows, before they trade, exactly what evidence will decide the result and where it will come from. The clarity of the resolution source is one of the things that separates a carefully designed contract from a vague one.
Good resolution sources tend to be public, hard to dispute, and published on a known schedule. A national statistics office, an election authority, a central bank release, or an official scoreboard are common examples because they are visible to everyone and not controlled by any one trader. When a market relies on a source that is private, slow, or open to interpretation, the chance of a messy or contested settlement rises, and you may not learn the final answer as quickly as you expect.
Before you trade a contract, it is worth reading how it defines its resolution source and what happens if that source is delayed, changed, or silent. Rules usually spell out a backup source or a procedure for these cases. Knowing the source also helps you judge a price, since you are really forming a view about what that specific source will report, not about the event in some looser sense. Two contracts on what sounds like the same question can settle differently if they name different sources.
A contract asks whether a national unemployment rate will be at or above a set level for a given month. The rules name the official statistics agency's scheduled release as the resolution source. When that agency publishes the figure on its release date, the number it reports decides the market, regardless of early estimates or commentary that circulated beforehand.
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A market is only as clear as its resolution source, and a contested or delayed source can change when and how you are paid. Prediction markets can lose you money. Stake only what you can afford to lose, never to chase a loss, and never on borrowed money. If it stops feeling like a free choice, step back. In the United States you can call or text the helpline on 1-800-GAMBLER or visit ncpgambling.org.
It is the official data or authority a market names in its rules as the final word on the outcome. When that source reports the result, the contract settles to match it.
Because it tells you in advance exactly what evidence will decide the market and where it comes from. It removes argument after the event and lets you judge a price against a specific, knowable reference rather than a vague impression.
Well written rules name a backup source or a procedure for delays, corrections, or silence. You should read these terms before trading, since they affect when you are paid and how an unusual situation is handled.
Yes. If they name different resolution sources or different cutoff times, what looks like the same question can resolve in different ways. Always check the exact source a contract uses.
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