The resolution date is the point at which a prediction market contract settles to its final value, paying the winning side one dollar per contract and the other side nothing, according to the market rules.
Last reviewed 8 August 2025 · Educational, not advice
The resolution date is when a market closes the question for good and pays out. Until that moment a contract trades somewhere between one and ninety nine cents, reflecting the probability the market is pricing. At resolution the question is judged against the market rules, and each contract settles to its true value, one dollar if the defined outcome happened and zero if it did not. The terms settlement date and expiry date are often used for the same idea. The resolution date is also the moment the answer becomes fact rather than opinion.
It helps to separate three things that people often blur together. There is the event itself, there is the moment an official source confirms the result, and there is the resolution that the venue applies based on that source. These can fall on different days. A figure might be published one afternoon, but a market may wait for a final revision, or for a named authority to certify the number, before it settles. The market rules spell out which source counts, how ties or cancellations are handled, and what happens if the result is delayed or disputed. Reading those rules before you trade is the only reliable way to know exactly when and how you get paid.
The resolution date shapes both pricing and behaviour. As the date nears and uncertainty falls, prices tend to drift toward zero or one hundred cents, because there is less unknown left to price. A contract that sat near fifty cents for weeks can swing hard in the final hours as the result comes into view. Your capital is also committed until the contract resolves, so a market that settles months from now ties up your money and exposes it to more time for surprises than one that settles tomorrow. None of this tells you which way an outcome will go.
Resolution dates can move. If an event is postponed, a data source is late, or an outcome is contested, settlement can be pushed back or sent for review under the venue rules. That is a real risk, not an edge case, and it is one reason to favour markets with clear, well sourced criteria and to read how a venue handles ambiguity. The resolution date tells you when the question ends and your position is finally judged. It does not tell you whether the outcome is likely, and we never name a contract to trade.
Suppose a market asks whether a monthly figure will land above a threshold, with rules that say it resolves on the first business day after the official agency publishes the final number. The data event is the release, but the resolution date is the day after, once the named source is confirmed. If you bought contracts at forty cents and the figure clears the threshold, each contract settles at one dollar on that date. If the release is delayed, the resolution date moves with it, and your funds stay committed until settlement.
Illustrative only. Numbers and timing are examples, not a quote or a prediction, and exclude fees.
Your money is committed until a contract resolves, the date can move if an event or source is delayed, and prices can swing hard near settlement. Knowing the resolution date does not make a trade safe or an outcome likely. Stake only what you can afford to lose, never to chase a loss, and never on borrowed money. If it stops feeling like a free choice, step back. In the United States you can call or text the helpline on 1-800-GAMBLER or visit ncpgambling.org.
It is the date on which a prediction market contract settles to its final value, paying the winning side one dollar per contract and the losing side nothing, according to the market rules. It is also called the settlement or expiry date.
Not always. The event might happen on one day, but the market may resolve only once an official source confirms the result, which can be later. Always read the market rules to see what source and what timing govern resolution.
Sometimes. If the underlying event is delayed, the data source is late, or the outcome is disputed, settlement can be pushed back or sent for review. The published rules describe how the venue handles delays and ambiguous results.
Your money is committed until the contract resolves, and the price can move sharply as that date approaches. A later resolution ties up funds for longer and leaves more time for surprises. It does not tell you whether an outcome is likely.
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