A yes contract is the side of an event contract that pays one dollar if the defined outcome happens and nothing if it does not, so its price reads as the implied probability of that outcome.
Last reviewed 18 October 2025 · Educational, not advice
Most event contracts have two sides, yes and no, tied to a clearly defined question with a fixed resolution date. The yes contract is the side that pays out if the outcome happens. By convention it settles at one dollar if the event is judged to have occurred, and at zero if it has not. Because the payout is fixed at one dollar, the price you pay for a yes contract, somewhere between one and ninety nine cents, is the market implied probability that the outcome will happen.
The mirror of the yes contract is the no contract, which pays one dollar if the outcome does not happen. On a single market the two prices normally add up to roughly one dollar before fees, because exactly one of them will end in the money. If yes trades at forty cents, no will trade near sixty, reflecting an implied sixty percent chance the event does not occur. Buying yes and buying no are simply two ways of expressing opposite views on the same question.
A yes price is an implied probability, not a prediction. A contract at seventy cents does not mean the event will happen, it means the market is currently pricing roughly a seventy percent chance, and that figure moves as people trade on new information. The price can rise or fall before the question resolves, so you do not have to hold to settlement. You can often sell a yes contract back into the market at the going price, taking a profit or a loss depending on how the price has moved since you bought.
Holding a yes contract carries a real risk of loss. If the event does not happen, the contract resolves at zero and you lose everything you paid for it. Even before resolution the price can fall if opinion shifts against the outcome. A yes contract is a clean way to take a position on a defined event, but it is not a safe one, and the money you commit to it is genuinely at risk.
Suppose a yes contract on a defined question trades at forty cents. The market is implying roughly a forty percent chance the outcome happens. You buy one yes contract for forty cents. If the event is later judged to have happened, your contract resolves at one dollar, a profit of sixty cents before fees. If it does not happen, it resolves at zero and you lose your forty cents. If opinion shifts and the price rises to fifty five cents before resolution, you could instead sell and take the difference, again before fees.
Illustrative only. Numbers are examples, not a quote or a prediction, and exclude fees.
A yes contract resolves at zero if the outcome does not happen, and you lose what you paid. Any position can lose. Stake only what you can afford to lose, never to chase a loss, and never on borrowed money. If it stops feeling like a free choice, step back. In the United States you can call or text the helpline on 1-800-GAMBLER or visit ncpgambling.org.
It is the side of an event contract that pays one dollar if the defined outcome happens and nothing if it does not. Its price between one and ninety nine cents reads as the market implied probability that the outcome occurs, before fees.
A yes contract pays out if the event happens, a no contract pays out if it does not. The two are mirror images, and on a single market their prices normally add up to about one dollar before fees, since one of them will resolve in the money.
A yes price of forty cents implies the market is pricing roughly a forty percent chance the outcome happens. It is an implied probability that moves as people trade, not a prediction that the event will or will not occur.
Yes. If the event does not happen the yes contract resolves at zero and you lose what you paid. The price can also fall before resolution if opinion shifts, so the money at stake is genuinely at risk.
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