How to use Metaculus

No. The standard Metaculus platform is free and uses reputation points rather than money. You do not deposit funds and there is no financial payout on the core platform. Some tournaments offer cash prizes, and those are governed by their own separate rules. This is general information, not advice, current as of March 2026.

Create a free account, open a question that is still accepting forecasts, and submit your estimate. For a binary question that is a probability between zero and one hundred percent. For a numeric question you submit a range or distribution. You can update your forecast as often as you like while the question is open.

Metaculus uses a log based, strictly proper scoring system, which means your best strategy is to report what you actually believe. You are scored on how accurate your forecast was relative to a baseline, and forecasting earlier can earn a time related benefit. Scores feed reputation points and leaderboards rather than a cash balance.

A prediction market lets people trade contracts for money, and the price reflects an implied probability. Metaculus is a community forecasting platform where people submit probability estimates that are aggregated into a community prediction, with no buying or selling and no money on the core platform.

Entering and forecasting is free. Some tournaments are sponsored and pay a prize pool to forecasters based on accuracy and participation, divided according to the tournament rules. Read the specific tournament page for its terms, eligibility, and how any prize is awarded.