General information, not financial, investment, legal, tax or betting advice · Prediction markets carry risk of loss · 18+ or the legal age in your region
The Index 100/Categories/Soccer and world football
Category guide

Soccer and world football prediction markets, explained without the noise.

A neutral guide to soccer and world football prediction markets and event contracts: how the contracts work, why draws need a three way market, what regulators allow, and where the legality is contested. Information, not advice.

Last reviewed 23 June 2026 · Facts and fees as of June 2026 · Illustrative editorial examples

2
Outcomes per contract
Binary: resolves to one dollar or zero
1-99¢
Price range
The price is the implied probability
3
Platforms rated here
Polymarket, Futuur, Novig
Varies
Where it is legal
Reviewed on the legality hub
Rated best for this category

Where soccer and world football markets actually trade well.

01
Polymarket
The deepest liquidity we track in this category.
86/100
02
Futuur
Global coverage; play money in the US.
68/100
03
Novig
Newly designated, peer-to-peer pricing.
74/100
How outcomes settle

A contract is a question with two clear answers.

Most markets here are binary: a clearly defined yes or no question. Each contract resolves to one dollar if yes and zero if no. The price you pay between 1 and 99 cents is the market's live read on the odds.

Settlement follows a written rule defined before trading: the named source, the date, and how edge cases are handled. Read that rule before you trade; it is the contract.

Resolution sources and timing differ by platform and market. Always check the specific market's rules, not the headline.

Price to implied probability

Drag to see how a contract price maps to an implied chance, and what 100 dollars would return if it resolves yes.

Contract price
64¢
Implied chance
64%
Stake $100 if YES
$156
profit +$56
If NO
$0
you lose your $100 stake

A price is the market's estimate of probability, not a forecast of the result and not advice. Fees and spreads reduce real returns. Illustrative; excludes fees.

Costs compared

What it costs to take a position.

Structures differ. Some charge a per-contract fee, others earn on the spread. Compare like with like. As of June 2026; illustrative.

Platform
Cost model
Deposit / withdraw
Notes
Polymarket
Spread-based; low explicit fees
Stablecoin / intermediary
Score 86/100 · see profile
Futuur
Spread; real money offshore
Local methods / play money
Score 68/100 · see profile
Novig
Per-contract fee scaled to price
ACH, debit, wire (USD)
Score 74/100 · see profile
Robinhood
Low per-contract fee
Linked brokerage (USD)
Score 79/100 · see profile
Step by step

How a trade actually works.

1
Read the resolution rule
Find the exact source and date the market uses to decide, and how it treats edge cases. This rule is the contract.
2
Check your eligibility
Confirm the platform is legally available where you live and that you meet the age and verification rules.
3
Read the price as a probability
A 64 cent contract implies a 64 percent chance. It is an estimate, not a forecast, and it moves as others trade.
4
Size the position honestly
Decide your maximum loss before you buy. Account for fees and the spread, which quietly reduce real returns.
5
Place and monitor
You can usually sell before resolution at the current price to lock in or cut a loss, if there is enough liquidity.
6
Settlement and payout
When the event resolves, winning contracts pay one dollar and losing ones pay nothing. Withdrawal timing depends on the platform.
Before you trade

Five questions worth asking first.

If you cannot answer these for a specific market, you do not yet understand what you would be buying.

What exact source and date decides this market, and who adjudicates a dispute?

Is there enough liquidity for me to exit at a fair price before resolution?

What are the all-in costs, fee, spread, deposit and withdrawal, on a trade this size?

Is this platform legally available to me, and am I within its age and verification rules?

What is the most I am willing to lose here, and have I decided that before buying?

FAQ

The questions readers keep asking.

What is a soccer prediction market?

It is an event contract whose payout depends on a defined football outcome, such as which team wins a match, whether the match is a draw, who wins a league or cup, or who finishes as a tournament's top scorer. It trades as a yes or no contract priced between one cent and ninety nine cents, and the price reflects an implied probability.

How does the draw change the market?

A league match can finish level, so a single match is a three way question across home win, away win, and draw. Exchanges list separate contracts for each outcome or frame the question precisely, which means a favorite can be priced well below where a simple win or lose market would put it.

Are soccer event contracts legal where I live?

It depends on your state. A federal appeals court held that federal commodity law can preempt state gambling rules for sports event contracts on registered exchanges, but several states dispute that and have pursued enforcement. Check the legality page for your state and verify the current position.

Can I trade World Cup markets?

Tournament futures such as who wins a World Cup are the kind of championship advancement contract within scope of the 2026 Commodity Futures Trading Commission proposal, but availability still depends on your state and on whether the venue lists the market. The proposal was not final as of June 2026, so confirm the current rule and your eligibility.

Why is there no recommended platform here?

Because the legality of sports event contracts is contested by state and we do not tout. We route you to compare how platforms are regulated and to check your state, so you only consider options genuinely available to you.

Keep reading
Platform profile
Polymarket, rated 86
Legality hub
Where these markets are legal, state by state