How political and election questions work on Metaculus, a play money forecasting platform that scores reputation rather than cash, and how that differs from a real money market. Information, not advice. As of October 2025.
Last reviewed 29 October 2025 · Facts as of October 2025 · Illustrative editorial examples
On Metaculus, a politics and elections market is a contract on a clearly defined question that settles against a written rule, the named source and date set before trading. A correct side pays one dollar and the other pays nothing, so the price between 1 and 99 cents reads as the implied probability.
No money is at stake; the currency is a track record, so there is no financial risk and no exchange oversight.
Always read the specific market's resolution rule, not the headline. Fees and spreads reduce real returns, and availability can change.
No. Metaculus is a forecasting platform where users submit probability estimates and earn reputation points, with no real money deposited or paid out on the core product. Separately run tournaments can offer cash prizes under their own terms. This is general information, not advice, current as of October 2025.
Not on the standard platform, where the currency is reputation points rather than cash. Some tournaments offer prizes under their own rules, so read those terms. Treat the platform as a way to build a track record and study how crowds estimate outcomes, not as a payout.
It is a crowd estimate of probability, combined from many individual forecasts with more weight given to historically accurate forecasters. A community number near sixty percent means the crowd leans that way, not that the outcome is settled, and it can be wrong.
Because the core product involves no real money, it generally sits outside the gambling and financial rules that govern real money event contracts, which makes it broadly usable as a forecasting tool. Always confirm the current terms with the platform. As of October 2025.
See the politics and elections category guide for how these markets work across platforms, and the legality hub for where each platform is available to you.
These contracts trade on a regulated venue and settle against a written rule. Read the primary source and the specific market rule before you act.
Facts as of October 2025. General information, not financial or betting advice.