A neutral, dated guide to political and election event contracts on ForecastEx, the CFTC regulated exchange. How the contracts settle, the per contract fee, the incentive coupon, and United States availability. Information, not advice. As of September 2025.
Last reviewed 22 September 2025 · Facts as of September 2025 · Illustrative editorial examples
On ForecastEx, a politics and elections market is a contract on a clearly defined question that settles against a written rule, the named source and date set before trading. A correct side pays one dollar and the other pays nothing, so the price between 1 and 99 cents reads as the implied probability.
CFTC-regulated exchange and clearinghouse owned by Interactive Brokers, very strong standing.
Always read the specific market's resolution rule, not the headline. Fees and spreads reduce real returns, and availability can change.
Yes. Political and election questions are one of ForecastEx's core contract categories, alongside economic and climate questions. It is a registered exchange and clearing organisation overseen by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. This is general information, not advice, as of September 2025.
Verified United States users can reach ForecastEx, since it is federally overseen, subject to its account and eligibility rules. Availability can depend on your region and your account status, so confirm your own eligibility before acting.
As binary contracts. If the defined event happens, the contract settles at one dollar, and if it does not, it settles at zero. The price between one cent and ninety nine cents reflects the market's implied probability, set by the people trading.
ForecastEx has charged a small per contract fee embedded in the pricing, and it has paid an interest style incentive that accrues on open positions. Treat any figure as indicative and as of September 2025, and confirm the current schedule on the platform before trading.
No. A price is the market's implied probability based on current information, not a forecast that will come true. It can move sharply and can be wrong. Read it as a probability estimate, never as a verdict, and never stake more than you can afford to lose.
These contracts trade on a regulated venue and settle against a written rule. Read the primary source and the specific market rule before you act.
Facts as of September 2025. General information, not financial or betting advice.