A neutral, dated guide to economics and Federal Reserve markets on Polymarket, including its United States regulated product and its international onchain version. How they settle, what they cost, and availability. Information, not advice. As of October 2025.
Last reviewed 12 October 2025 · Facts as of October 2025 · Illustrative editorial examples
On Polymarket, a economics and the fed market is a contract on a clearly defined question that settles against a written rule, the named source and date set before trading. A correct side pays one dollar and the other pays nothing, so the price between 1 and 99 cents reads as the implied probability.
Began intermediated US access in December 2025 through a CFTC-licensed exchange and clearinghouse; standing is improving but newer than Kalshi.
Always read the specific market's resolution rule, not the headline. Fees and spreads reduce real returns, and availability can change.
Yes. Economic and Federal Reserve questions are a long part of Polymarket's menu, including rate decisions, inflation readings, and growth calls. This is general information, not advice, as of October 2025.
For United States readers the relevant Polymarket is its regulated product, which runs through a designated contract market registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, reopened to United States users in 2026, and is available in many states subject to its checks. The older international onchain version remains geoblocked for United States addresses. Confirm your own state eligibility before acting.
Because the resolving source is typically a scheduled, public, official figure, such as a central bank announcement or an agency data release. That leaves little room to dispute whether the event happened, though you should still check exactly which release and revision a market keys off.
It depends on the version. The United States regulated product funds in dollars and charges the spread plus any fee. The international onchain version uses a wallet and a stablecoin and adds network fees. Treat any figure as indicative and as of October 2025, and confirm the live terms before acting.
No. A price is the market's implied probability based on current information, not a forecast that will come true. It can move sharply around a release and can be wrong. Read it as a probability estimate, never as a verdict.
These contracts trade on a regulated venue and settle against a written rule. Read the primary source and the specific market rule before you act.
Facts as of October 2025. General information, not financial or betting advice.