A neutral, dated guide to economics and Federal Reserve forecast contracts on ForecastEx, a CFTC registered exchange and clearinghouse. How rate, inflation, and jobs markets settle, what they cost, the incentive coupon, and United States availability. Information, not advice. As of February 2026.
Last reviewed 3 February 2026 · Facts as of February 2026 · Illustrative editorial examples
On ForecastEx, a economics and the fed market is a contract on a clearly defined question that settles against a written rule, the named source and date set before trading. A correct side pays one dollar and the other pays nothing, so the price between 1 and 99 cents reads as the implied probability.
CFTC-regulated exchange and clearinghouse owned by Interactive Brokers, very strong standing.
Always read the specific market's resolution rule, not the headline. Fees and spreads reduce real returns, and availability can change.
Yes. Economic questions are central to ForecastEx, including the Federal Funds rate, inflation readings, and labor data, alongside some climate indicators. ForecastEx is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission as a designated contract market and a clearing organization. This is general information, not advice, as of February 2026.
ForecastEx has said it distributes the income it earns on the cash collateral backing open positions to members as an incentive coupon, accrued on the contracts a member holds and paid out periodically. It can offset some holding cost, but it is not guaranteed and does not remove the risk of loss. Confirm the current terms.
Because the resolving source is typically a scheduled, public, official figure, such as a central bank announcement or an agency data release. That leaves little room to dispute whether the event happened, though you should still check exactly which release and revision a market keys off.
ForecastEx is a federally registered exchange and clearinghouse reachable by eligible United States users, subject to its rules and your account status. Availability can depend on your circumstances, so confirm your own eligibility before acting.
No. A price is the market's implied probability based on current information, not a forecast that will come true. It can move sharply around a release and can be wrong. Read it as a probability estimate, never as a verdict.
These contracts trade on a regulated venue and settle against a written rule. Read the primary source and the specific market rule before you act.
Facts as of February 2026. General information, not financial or betting advice.