Contract expiration is the moment a prediction market contract reaches the end of its defined term and stops trading, ready to be settled against the outcome it was written on.
Last reviewed 10 December 2025 · Educational, not advice
Contract expiration is the point at which a prediction market contract reaches the end of its term and stops trading. Every event contract is written with a defined life, and expiration is the cutoff that closes that life. Before it, people can buy and sell freely as opinion and information change. At the expiration time the order book closes, no further trades are possible, and the contract is locked in whatever state each holder left it. From that moment the question is no longer what people think will happen but what actually did, judged against the outcome the contract was written on.
It helps to separate two ideas that are easy to blur. Expiration is when trading ends. Settlement is the separate step where the platform reads its resolution source, decides the outcome, and pays one dollar to the winning side and zero to the other. The two can happen close together or with a gap between them, depending on how quickly the deciding information becomes official. A contract can expire at a fixed time even though the result it depends on is confirmed minutes, hours, or days later, so a position can sit expired but unsettled while the outcome is verified.
The exact expiration time matters more than people expect, because it is the last moment you can act. If you want to take a profit, cut a loss, or simply step away before the outcome is known, you must do so before the contract expires. After that your position is carried into settlement exactly as it stands, with no way to change it. The precise cutoff, the time zone it is quoted in, and the wording of the outcome are all set out in the contract specifications published by the platform, not chosen by you, so reading those terms before you trade is the only way to know exactly when your window closes.
Expiration also explains why a price often moves sharply as the cutoff approaches. As the deadline nears, there is less time for new information to change the result, so the market tends to converge toward either near one dollar or near zero as confidence builds. That convergence is not a guarantee. Late news can swing a contract right up to the cutoff, and a price that looked settled can still be wrong. Understanding expiration is mainly about knowing your deadline and not assuming the late price is a safe or certain read on the result.
Suppose a contract is written on whether a published figure lands above a threshold, with expiration set for five in the afternoon on a stated date. At a quarter to five you can still buy or sell. At five o'clock trading stops and the contract expires, and any position you hold is locked. The figure is published officially the next morning, and only then does the contract settle, paying one dollar to the side that was right and zero to the other.
Illustrative only. Times and terms are examples, not a quote or a prediction, and exclude fees.
Knowing when a contract expires does not make holding it safe. A position locked at expiration can still settle against you, and a late price can be wrong. Prediction markets can lose you money. Stake only what you can afford to lose, never to chase a loss, and never on borrowed money. If it stops feeling like a free choice, step back. In the United States you can call or text the helpline on 1-800-GAMBLER or visit ncpgambling.org.
Contract expiration is the moment a prediction market contract reaches the end of its defined term and stops trading. After expiration the contract can no longer be bought or sold, and it waits to be settled against the real world outcome it was written on.
No. Expiration is when trading ends and the contract is locked. Settlement is the separate step where the platform determines the outcome from its resolution source and pays out one dollar to the winning side and zero to the other. Settlement can happen at expiration or some time after it.
No. Once a contract expires the order book closes and no new trades are possible. Any position you hold is carried into settlement as it stands, so if you want to exit before the outcome is known you must do so before the expiration time.
In the contract specifications published by the platform, which state the expiration date and time, the time zone, the resolution source, and the exact wording of the outcome. Read these before trading, since the precise cutoff and how the outcome is judged are defined there and not by you.
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