A plain guide to crypto and bitcoin prediction markets: what they are, how price contracts settle, the resolution sources that decide them, the real risks, and the questions to ask first. Information, not advice.
Last reviewed 23 June 2026 · Facts and fees as of June 2026 · Illustrative editorial examples
Most markets here are binary: a clearly defined yes or no question. Each contract resolves to one dollar if yes and zero if no. The price you pay between 1 and 99 cents is the market's live read on the odds.
Settlement follows a written rule defined before trading: the named source, the date, and how edge cases are handled. Read that rule before you trade; it is the contract.
Resolution sources and timing differ by platform and market. Always check the specific market's rules, not the headline.
Drag to see how a contract price maps to an implied chance, and what 100 dollars would return if it resolves yes.
A price is the market's estimate of probability, not a forecast of the result and not advice. Fees and spreads reduce real returns. Illustrative; excludes fees.
Structures differ. Some charge a per-contract fee, others earn on the spread. Compare like with like. As of June 2026; illustrative.
If you cannot answer these for a specific market, you do not yet understand what you would be buying.
What exact source and date decides this market, and who adjudicates a dispute?
Is there enough liquidity for me to exit at a fair price before resolution?
What are the all-in costs, fee, spread, deposit and withdrawal, on a trade this size?
Is this platform legally available to me, and am I within its age and verification rules?
What is the most I am willing to lose here, and have I decided that before buying?
A crypto prediction market is a market in binary contracts on a defined crypto outcome, such as whether bitcoin closes above a stated price by a set date. Each contract settles at one dollar if the outcome happens and zero if it does not, and the price between one cent and ninety nine cents reads as the implied probability. This is general information, not advice.
It settles against the resolution source named in the contract rules. On some regulated venues bitcoin markets resolve against a published reference index, for example a benchmark that averages many prices around the settlement time, while other venues name a specific source and time on each market page. Always read the named source and method before trading.
It depends on the platform and your location. Some crypto markets are offered by federally overseen venues, while others run on onchain platforms without United States registration, which is a contested question for United States users. Check the legality page for your place and the platform terms before trading. This is general information, not legal advice, current as of June 2026.
Crypto prices are volatile, so the implied probability on a short dated price contract can swing sharply on news or on a single large move in the underlying asset. That volatility cuts both ways and is a core reason these markets carry real risk of loss.
On most venues you can sell your position back into the market at the current price before resolution, subject to there being enough liquidity, or hold to settlement where a correct contract pays one dollar and an incorrect one pays nothing.