A contract price, an implied probability, and the odds formats you see elsewhere are all the same idea wearing different clothes. Here is how to move between them, with a worked table you can keep.
A price in cents is the implied probability in percent. Divide one hundred by the price to get decimal odds, then translate decimal into fractional or American from there.
On a regulated exchange a yes contract settles at one dollar and trades between one cent and ninety nine cents, per Kalshi's published contract terms, as of June 2026.
Every format hides the same blind spot, the fees and the spread that decide what you actually keep. The maths is exact and the costs are real.
26 June 2026, by Fredrik Filipsson. A price is an implied probability, not a prediction, and a contract can resolve no and return nothing.
A prediction market price in cents is already a probability. A contract trading at forty cents implies a forty percent chance, because a yes contract pays one dollar and forty cents is forty percent of a dollar. To convert to decimal odds, divide one hundred by the price in cents, so forty cents becomes decimal odds of 2.50. To read it as American odds, a probability under fifty percent gives a positive number and a probability over fifty percent gives a negative number. Every format carries the same information. None of them tells you the outcome, and all of them ignore the fees and spread that decide your real return.
Every conversion on this page comes from one fact about how an event contract is built. A yes contract on a regulated exchange settles at one dollar if the event happens and at zero if it does not, and it trades at any price between one cent and ninety nine cents in between, per Kalshi's published contract terms, as of June 2026. The contract is a claim on a single dollar that either arrives or does not. That is why the price is not just a number the market made up. It is the most the market will pay today for a chance at that dollar. That single anchor, the dollar payout, is the reason a price and a probability are the same fact, and it is the only thing you have to remember to rebuild every conversion on this page from scratch.
Read that way, the price answers a probability question directly. If a contract trades at forty cents, the market is willing to pay forty percent of the dollar to own the chance, so the implied probability is forty percent. There is no extra step. Cents become percent because the payout is a round one dollar. The same logic runs in reverse, which is the second half of this guide. If you have an odds figure from somewhere else and want to know what price it implies, you can always work back to the cents and the percent underneath.
From that single anchor, the other formats are just different ways of saying how much you stand to make if the dollar arrives. Decimal odds describe the total you get back per unit staked. Fractional odds describe the profit alone, as a ratio. American odds describe the profit relative to a round one hundred dollars, with a sign that flips at even money. Learn the anchor and the rest is arithmetic you can do in your head.
The table below takes a range of prices and shows the implied probability, the three odds formats, and the total return on a one hundred dollar yes stake before any costs. Bookmark it and you rarely need the formulas again. The pattern to notice is the symmetry. A five cent longshot and a ninety five cent favourite are mirror images, and the steepest changes in odds happen out at the extremes, not in the busy middle of the book.
| Price | Implied chance | Decimal odds | Fractional odds | American odds | Return on $100 yes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5¢ | 5% | 20.00 | 19 / 1 | +1900 | $2,000 |
| 20¢ | 20% | 5.00 | 4 / 1 | +400 | $500 |
| 33¢ | 33% | 3.03 | About 2 / 1 | +203 | $303 |
| 40¢ | 40% | 2.50 | 3 / 2 | +150 | $250 |
| 50¢ | 50% | 2.00 | 1 / 1 (evens) | +100 | $200 |
| 60¢ | 60% | 1.67 | 2 / 3 | −150 | $167 |
| 75¢ | 75% | 1.33 | 1 / 3 | −300 | $133 |
| 92¢ | 92% | 1.09 | About 1 / 11 | −1150 | $109 |
How we built this, as of 26 June 2026. Implied chance is the price in cents read as a percent. Decimal odds are one hundred divided by the price in cents. Fractional odds are decimal odds minus one written as a ratio. American odds are the profit on a one hundred dollar stake below even money, shown with a plus, and the stake needed to win one hundred dollars above even money, shown with a minus. Return on $100 yes is decimal odds times one hundred. Figures are rounded and exclude fees and spread, which reduce real returns. These conventions are standard across regulated venues, but always confirm a venue's own rounding and fee rules before you rely on a number.
Figure: a price of forty cents read across three scales. The same point is forty cents, a forty percent implied chance, and decimal odds of 2.50. Illustrative, excludes fees and spread. As of 26 June 2026.
This one is almost free. A yes contract that settles at one dollar is worth its probability, so the price in cents is the implied probability in percent. Sixty cents is a sixty percent implied chance. Five cents is a five percent implied chance. The only subtlety is that the price you pay includes the spread between buyers and sellers, so the working probability sits a little inside the best quotes, not exactly on them. When you want to be precise, take the midpoint between the best yes price and the best no price as your read on the market's view.
Decimal odds tell you the total return per unit staked, including your stake back. Divide one by the probability as a decimal, or equivalently divide one hundred by the price in cents. A forty percent chance gives one hundred divided by forty, which is decimal odds of 2.50, meaning a winning one dollar pays two dollars and fifty cents in total. Higher probability means lower decimal odds, because the market thinks the outcome is more likely and the chance is cheaper to back relative to the dollar it pays.
Fractional odds are decimal odds minus one, written as a ratio, so decimal 2.50 is profit of 1.50 per 1, or three to two. American odds split at even money. For a probability under fifty percent the figure is positive and equals the profit on a one hundred dollar stake. For a probability over fifty percent the figure is negative and equals the stake needed to win one hundred dollars. A forty percent chance is about plus one hundred and fifty in American odds, while a seventy five percent chance is about minus three hundred.
The round trip closes the loop. To turn decimal odds back into a price, divide one hundred by the decimal figure. Decimal 2.50 gives one hundred divided by 2.50, which is forty cents and a forty percent implied chance. To turn American odds into a probability, a positive number of plus one hundred and fifty implies one hundred divided by two hundred and fifty, or forty percent. Whatever format you start from, you can always find the price and the percent sitting underneath it.
Rounding makes ties look exact. A contract at thirty three cents is not exactly two to one. The true decimal odds are one hundred divided by thirty three, which is 3.03, and the profit ratio is 2.03 to 1. Venues round prices to whole cents and round odds for display, so two markets that look identical on screen can pay slightly differently once the contract settles. When the gap between two prices is only a cent or two, remember that part of it may be rounding rather than real value. Treat any tidy fraction as an approximation unless you have done the division yourself.
The no side converts the same way. Everything on this page works for the no contract too, because no is just yes for the opposite outcome. If yes trades at forty cents, no trades near sixty cents, implying a sixty percent chance that the event does not happen. Convert the no price exactly as you would the yes price, divide one hundred by sixty for decimal odds of 1.67, and you have read the other side of the book. When you compare a yes price on one venue with a no price on another, convert both to the same outcome and the same format first, or you will compare two different questions and call the difference an edge.
A converted odd is not a verdict on value. The most useful thing the conversion gives you is a number to set against your own estimate of the chance. If you believe the true probability is forty five percent and the market implies forty percent, the conversion has surfaced a difference of opinion, not a guarantee. Your estimate can be the wrong one. The point of the arithmetic is to make the comparison clean, so that any judgment rests on your read of the event rather than on confusion about formats. The conversion ends where the thinking begins, and the thinking is where the risk lives.
Drag the price to watch the implied probability and the equivalent decimal odds move together. They are the same number expressed two ways. The payoff shown is a gross return on a one hundred dollar yes stake and ignores fees and spread.
Illustrative and excludes fees and spread, which reduce real returns. A price is an implied probability, not a prediction, and a contract can resolve no and return nothing.
On an exchange you usually see a yes price and a no price. In a perfect market with no costs they would add up to exactly one dollar, because the dollar has to go to one side or the other. In practice the two prices often sum to a little more than a dollar. That extra is the overround, the same idea as the margin a bookmaker builds into traditional odds. It is the gap that the spread and the costs of trading carve out. The diagram below shows a yes price of fifty six cents and a no price of forty six cents, which sum to one hundred and two cents, so the overround is two cents.
Figure: an illustrative two sided market. Prices are an example, not a live quote. The overround shown is two cents. As of 26 June 2026.
The favourite at ninety two cents. A contract trading at ninety two cents implies a ninety two percent chance. Decimal odds are one hundred divided by ninety two, about 1.09, so a winning one hundred dollar stake returns roughly one hundred and nine dollars, a profit of about nine dollars. In American odds that is around minus eleven hundred and fifty. The lesson of the heavy favourite is that the payout is small and the room to be wrong is not. One surprise wipes out many winning trades, which is why a high probability is never the same as a safe one.
The even chance at fifty cents. A fifty cent contract is the cleanest case. The implied probability is fifty percent, decimal odds are 2.00, fractional odds are one to one or evens, and American odds are plus one hundred. A winning one hundred dollar stake returns two hundred dollars. This is the hinge of the whole scale, the point where the American sign flips and where the same money is at risk on both sides of the question.
The longshot at five cents. A five cent contract implies a five percent chance. Decimal odds are 20.00, fractional odds are nineteen to one, and American odds are plus nineteen hundred. A winning one hundred dollar stake returns two thousand dollars. The large number is the draw and the trap. A five percent chance is, by definition, expected to fail nineteen times out of twenty, and the rare big payout has to cover all the losses before it. Converting the price to a tempting fraction does not change how often it loses.
Converting between formats is easy. The hard part is remembering what the conversion leaves out. Fees reduce the payout you actually collect, the spread means you rarely buy at the mid price, and thin markets can move against you the moment you place a real order. A contract that looks like fair value at the quoted price can be a poor deal once those costs are counted. The cleaner the number on the screen, the easier it is to forget that the number is a starting point, not a settlement.
Comparing odds across venues is where people fool themselves. Two platforms can quote the same event at different prices because the contracts resolve on different criteria, settle at different times, or charge different fees. A price difference is not automatically free money, and chasing it without reading both sets of rules is a fast way to lose. The conversions help you compare like with like, but only after you have checked that the two contracts really are alike. Our cross platform fees table tracks where those costs differ, and it is the place to start before you trust a price gap.
A small example shows how quickly costs eat into a clean conversion. Suppose you back a contract at forty cents, so the decimal odds read 2.50 and the gross return on one hundred dollars looks like two hundred and fifty. If the venue charges a fee on the trade and you cross a one or two cent spread to get filled, your true entry is nearer forty two cents, which is decimal odds of about 2.38 and a probability of forty two percent, not forty. The contract has not changed, but the price you actually paid has, and with it the real odds. The discipline is to convert the price you can transact at, not the mid price the screen advertises, because only the first one is money you can lose or keep.
Once the conversions are second nature, the point is to stop staring at them. The format you prefer should make a market easier to read, not turn trading into a puzzle that feels solved. Decimal odds suit people who think in total returns, American odds suit people raised on them, and raw cents suit people who want the probability with no arithmetic at all. Pick the one that lets you compare a price with your own honest estimate of the chance, because that comparison, not the conversion, is where any judgment lives.
Keep two cautions in view. First, a tidy number can create false confidence, and a precise looking probability is still just an estimate that can be wrong. Second, the figure you convert is a quoted price, not the price you will actually get after spread and fees. The maths is exact and the world is not, so treat every converted odd as a starting point for thinking, never as a reason to believe a market is easy or a result is settled.
Odds maths can make a market feel solvable. It is not. Fees, spread, and thin liquidity reduce real returns, and any contract can resolve against you. Stake only what you can afford to lose, never to chase a loss, and never on borrowed money. If it stops feeling like a free choice, step back. In the United States you can call or text the helpline on 1-800-GAMBLER or visit ncpgambling.org.
A converted odd tells you the gross payout. What you keep depends on the venue. Before you treat a price as a probability you can act on, see how trading fees, spreads, and withdrawal terms differ across the regulated venues we track. Availability and eligibility vary by region, so confirm your own access before opening any account.
A yes contract pays one dollar, so the price in cents is the implied probability in percent. Forty cents is a forty percent implied chance. The spread means your working probability sits just inside the quoted prices.
Divide one hundred by the price in cents. Forty cents becomes one hundred divided by forty, which is decimal odds of 2.50. Decimal odds include your stake in the total return.
A probability under fifty percent gives a positive American number equal to the profit on a one hundred dollar stake. A probability over fifty percent gives a negative number equal to the stake needed to win one hundred dollars. Forty percent is roughly plus one hundred and fifty.
The gap above one dollar is the spread and the costs built into the market, similar to the margin in traditional odds. It is part of why the quoted price overstates the value available to you.
Divide one hundred by the decimal odds to get the price in cents. Decimal odds of 2.50 give one hundred divided by 2.50, which is forty cents and a forty percent implied chance. The same probability sits underneath every odds format.
No. The conversions only restate the same probability in different formats. They do not reveal a winner, and we never tip outcomes. Any trade carries a real risk of loss.
The rules change fast. Get the changes that affect you, plain and current, not tips.
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