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GlossaryPlain definitions

Drawdown

A drawdown is the drop from a high point in your account value to a later low, before a new high is reached, usually shown as a percentage of the peak.

By Fredrik FilipssonFounder and editor · Two decades in advisory, hospitality and mediaEditorial review by Morten Andersen · Last reviewed 8 December 2025

Last reviewed 8 December 2025 · Educational, not advice

Information, not advice. This page is general information, not financial, investment, legal, tax, or betting advice. Prediction markets carry a real risk of loss. You must be 18+ or the legal age in your region.
In plain terms

What it means.

A drawdown measures how far your account has fallen from its best level. Picture the value of your balance plotted over time. Every time it reaches a new high, that becomes the latest peak. A drawdown is the decline from that peak down to the lowest point that follows, before the balance climbs back to a fresh high. It is almost always expressed as a percentage of the peak, so a balance that falls from one thousand dollars to eight hundred is in a twenty percent drawdown. It is a measure of the depth of a rough patch, not of your final result.

The figure people quote most often is the maximum drawdown, the largest peak to trough fall over a chosen period. It answers a blunt question, what is the worst slide you would have sat through. Two accounts can finish at the same place yet feel completely different along the way, one drifting gently and the other plunging and recovering. Maximum drawdown captures that difference. It is widely used precisely because the final number alone hides how much pain came before it, and because a deep low can force a person to stop, change course, or run out of funds before any recovery arrives.

Drawdown matters more than it first appears because of simple arithmetic. Climbing out of a hole takes a larger gain than the loss that dug it. A twenty percent fall needs a twenty five percent gain to recover, a fifty percent fall needs a one hundred percent gain, and an eighty percent fall needs a four hundred percent gain just to return to even. The deeper the drawdown, the steeper that climb, which is why limiting how far your balance can fall is a central part of bankroll discipline rather than an afterthought. Avoiding ruin keeps you in a position to continue at all.

In event markets a string of losing contracts, or a few large positions resolving against you, can produce a sharp drawdown quickly, because each contract settles fully at one dollar or zero. Sizing positions so that no single resolution can do outsized damage is how careful people keep drawdowns survivable. None of this is a measure of skill or a promise. Drawdown only describes how far your balance has fallen, not whether your choices were sound or an outcome was likely. We never name a contract to trade or promise a result.

A worked example

Say your balance grows to a peak of two thousand dollars, then a run of positions resolves against you and it falls to twelve hundred. That is a drawdown of eight hundred dollars, or forty percent of the peak. To get back to two thousand from twelve hundred you need to gain eight hundred dollars, which is about sixty seven percent of the lower balance. The loss was forty percent, but the recovery needed is larger, which is the asymmetry that makes deep drawdowns so costly.

Illustrative only. Numbers are examples, not a quote or a prediction, and exclude fees.

A note on risk,

A deep drawdown is hard to recover from, and chasing losses to climb back faster usually makes it worse. Sizing positions so no single resolution can do outsized harm is the point. Stake only what you can afford to lose, never to chase a loss, and never on borrowed money. If it stops feeling like a free choice, step back. In the United States you can call or text the helpline on 1-800-GAMBLER or visit ncpgambling.org.

Common questions

Answered plainly.

What is a drawdown?

It is the drop from a high point in your account value to a later low, before a new high is reached. It is usually shown as a percentage of the peak, and it measures how far your balance has fallen from its best level.

What is maximum drawdown?

It is the largest peak to trough fall over a chosen period, the worst decline you would have lived through. It is a common way to gauge how severe the rough patches have been, separate from the final result.

Why does drawdown matter more than it looks?

Because recovering takes a larger gain than the loss itself. A fall of fifty percent needs a gain of one hundred percent just to get back to even. Deep drawdowns are hard to climb out of and can wipe out an account.

Does a small drawdown mean a strategy is good?

No. Drawdown only describes how far your balance has fallen, not whether your choices were sound or an outcome was likely. A short run can flatter or mislead. We never name a contract to trade or promise a result.

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