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Prediction Market Index/Compare/Polymarket vs Metaculus
Head to head

Polymarket vs Metaculus.

A like-for-like comparison on the things that actually differ: how each is regulated, how funding works, what it costs, and where it is available. We compare, we do not crown a winner.

By Fredrik FilipssonFounder and editor · Two decades in advisory, hospitality and mediaEditorial review by Morten Andersen · Last reviewed 8 February 2026

Last reviewed 8 February 2026 · Facts as of February 2026 · Illustrative editorial examples

Polymarket
86/100
Metaculus
69/100
Side by side

The same questions, asked of both.

Polymarket
Metaculus
Prediction Market Index score
86/100
69/100
Regulatory status
Intermediated US access via a CFTC-licensed exchange and clearinghouse (from Dec 2025); offshore elsewhere.
Reputation-based forecasting; no real-money trading, not a regulated exchange.
Custody of funds
Historically onchain in USDC; US route follows the intermediary's custody terms.
None; forecasts are scored, not traded for cash.
Fees
Historically low trading costs; confirm the current US fee schedule.
Free.
Markets
Politics, world events, economics, crypto, sports and culture, the widest menu we track.
Science, technology, world events and more.
Eligibility
US access through the intermediary, subject to verification; offshore access varies by country.
Open broadly to registered forecasters.
Best described as
The deepest liquidity in the category, now reaching US traders through an intermediated, CFTC-overseen route.
A reputation-based forecasting community with no real-money trading.
A balanced verdict

Which one is right for you?

On our rubric Polymarket scores 86 and Metaculus scores 69, but a higher score is not a recommendation to you. Polymarket tends to suit readers who value with the most markets of anyone, while Metaculus leans toward forecasting skill, not cash. The right venue depends on where you live and what you are eligible to use, so read both profiles and check the legality page before deciding.

FAQ

Questions readers keep asking.

Is Polymarket or Metaculus better?

Neither is universally better. Polymarket scores 86 on our rubric and Metaculus scores 69, but the right choice depends on your region, what you want to trade, and your eligibility. We compare the facts and leave the decision to you.

How current are these facts?

This comparison was last reviewed 8 February 2026 with facts as of February 2026. Fees, regulation and availability change often, so treat the figures as indicative and confirm the current terms on each platform.

Do you earn a commission from either platform?

No. Prediction Market Index does not take payment for placement and no platform can buy a higher score. Where a platform is genuinely available to you, any referral appears after the information, never before it.

Where is each platform legal?

Availability is local and, in the United States, often varies by state. Check our legality hub and each platform profile for the current position before you act.

Read the full profiles
Platform profile
Polymarket, rated 86
Platform profile
Metaculus, rated 69